Hurricane Humberto forecast to near Bermuda as strong storm

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Hurricane Humberto, the eighth named storm and third hurricane of the 2019 Atlantic tropical storm season, is forecast to head eastwards with a track that could take it quite near to Bermuda as a strong storm, possibly with wind speeds in the Cat 2 to Cat 3 range.

Read our latest on hurricane Humberto from September 18th here.

Original article: Bermuda’s insurance and reinsurance community will need to be on-watch over the next few days as hurricane Humberto heads generally in its direction, as any track further south could bring the storm closer to the island.

However, forecasters notes the high level of uncertainty in hurricane Humberto’s precise forecast path and how close it might get to Bermuda, with a more northerly turn possible before it reaches Bermuda.

The island is well within the National Hurricane Center’s cone of uncertainty, but as of now hurricane Humberto is forecast to path just to the north of Bermuda.

Hurricane Humberto forecast path or track

Hurricane Humberto has strengthened into a Category 3 storm, with maximum sustained winds of 1115 mph and higher gusts. Humberto may sustain its major Category 3 hurricane status as it moves closest to Bermuda.

Moving in an easterly direction, hurricane Humberto has been slowing down and is currently expected to near Bermuda later on Wednesday evening, but the island could experience tropical storm force wind conditions and heavy rainfall from earlier today.

Obviously, the closer hurricane Humberto gets to Bermuda the greater the chances of any disruption or damage occurring are and with the forecast models still showing a reasonable spread in direction, Bermudians and the insurance and reinsurance community there should keep an eye on the storm in the coming days.

Earlier this weekend, Humberto drenched Bahamas islands as a tropical storm, although thankfully does not appear to have caused too much disruption or added significantly to the damage caused by hurricane Dorian.

Based on the latest forecast, it seems Bermuda can expect tropical storm force winds and heavy rains from Humberto even if the track remains offshore of the island. The current forecast would see the eye of Humberto pass some way to the north, but should the track move closer to the island then conditions could be much worse.

Hurricane Humberto is forecast to turn north around the time it passes closest to Bermuda, which may also lessen the effects of its wind and rains. But if Humberto tracks any further south it could bring the storm much closer to Bermuda, increasing the chances of disruption.

Humberto’s tropical storm force winds extend 175 miles from its center and hurricane force winds 60 miles, meaning even from a distance its effects will be felt in Bermuda as it passes.

The NHC has raised a hurricane warning for Bermuda.

Looking further out, invest 97L (now tropical depression 10) is currently modelled with a track that is forecast to head in Bermuda’s general direction as well, meaning those on the island should keep an eye on forecasts over the coming days even after Humberto has passed by.

Below is the latest intensity model output from TropicalTidbits.com

Tropical storm or hurricane Dorian intensity forecast

NOAA’s latest full update on hurricane Humberto is below:

At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Humberto was located near latitude 31.5 North, longitude 70.4 West. Humberto is moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected through early Thursday, followed by a northeastward to north-northeastward motion through Friday. On the forecast track, the core of Humberto is expected to pass just to the northwest and north of Bermuda Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Humberto is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or so, but Humberto should remain a powerful hurricane through early Thursday. A steady weakening trend should begin later on Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). NOAA Buoy 41048 located just to the east of Humberto recently reported sustained winds of 47 mph (76 km/h) with a wind gust of 63 mph (101 km/h) and pressure falling rapidly.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 951 mb (28.09 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by Wednesday night and continue into early Thursday morning. Winds are expected to first reach tropical-storm strength by Wednesday afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

RAINFALL: Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through Thursday, with rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches expected.

SURF: Large swells generated by Humberto will increase along the coast of Bermuda by Wednesday. Dangerous breaking waves, especially along south-facing beaches, will be possible Wednesday night into Thursday, and could cause coastal flooding.

Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to North Carolina during the next couple of days.

These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office and the Bermuda Weather Service.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge and breaking waves could raise water levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate southern coast of Bermuda.

We will update you on hurricane Humberto as it proceeds and the threat it could pose to global insurance, reinsurance and ILS market interests.

You can always visit our 2019 Atlantic hurricane season page for the latest and we will update you as new information is reported to us.

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