japan typhoon

Update: See our more recent article on typhoon Nanmadol. While tropical storm Fiona may be concerning some, given the uncertainty in its eventual path, on the other side of the globe typhoon Nanmadol is seen as a relatively significant Japanese loss threat by insurance and reinsurance market interests.

The Northwest Pacific typhoon season, which is one of the peak zone perils for reinsurance, catastrophe bond and other insurance-linked securities (ILS), is forecast to see activity levels roughly 20% below-normal, as the effects of La Niña are increasingly expected to last through summer and into Autumn.

To the reinsurance and insurance-linked securities (ILS) market, earthquake risk is one of the biggest peril threats in the world and one that the market can’t be complacent about, according to Paul Wilson, Head of Non-Life Analytics at Securis Investment Partners.

The impact and subsequent loss creep from typhoon Jebi in Japan in 2018 caught many insurance-linked securities (ILS) investors by surprise, but the eventual deviation from initial vendor model loss estimates doesn’t translate to a fundamental issue with the models themselves, say industry experts.

Reinsurance broker Guy Carpenter has warned of above-normal potential for tropical cyclones, or typhoons, in certain parts of the western North Pacific basin this year, with an above-average number of storms anticipated.

According to analysts, loss development from last year’s Japanese typhoon Hagibis is not following the same path as 2018’s Jebi, with the current prognosis being that development is much better than feared.

Three tranches of catastrophe bonds exposed to Japanese typhoon wind damage have traded up around 10% in recent weeks, as the market’s view of how large the eventual industry losses from typhoon Jebi and Hagibis will be has moderated somewhat.

Industry losses from the flood driven damage of typhoon Hagibis could reach into the double-digit billion dollar range, according to ILS manager Twelve Capital, who also highlighted that in the ILS market it is collateralised retrocession that appears most at risk of performance impacts.

Typhoon Hagibis loss impact on insurance, reinsurance and insurance-linked securities (ILS) markets is likely to drive further rate improvements at upcoming renewals, but the market should watch out for potential loss creep, analysts at KBW warn.

Typhoon Hagibis is estimated as likely to cause an insurance and reinsurance market loss somewhere in a range from $8 billion to as much as $16 billion, by AIR Worldwide.