Property catastrophe reinsurance rates-on-line continued to fall at the April 1st renewals and for the United States, broker Guy Carpenter’s index now shows that 2026 is experiencing the sharpest fall in US property cat pricing since 2014.
The Guy Carpenter U.S. Property Catastrophe Rate on Line Index, which measures US property catastrophe reinsurance Rate-on-Line movements on brokered excess of loss placements, had fallen by 12% at the January 2026 renewals.
Broad market softening had resulted in lower priced protection for ceding companies in the United States and those market conditions persisted through any US focused property catastrophe reinsurance renewals in April.
Excess capacity and capital weight in the marketplace continues to place downward pressure on catastrophe reinsurance rates.
In addition, competition from insurance-linked securities markets and catastrophe bond investors are a further dimension pressuring prices.
After the April 2026 renewals, Guy Carpenter now says that its U.S. Property Catastrophe Rate on Line Index is down by 14% for the year so far.
You can analyse the Guy Carpenter U.S. Property Rate on Line Index using our interactive chart:
Like the January renewal, April 1st for United States cedents tends to be more about nationwide carrier programs as well as some regional.
The 14% decline for US property cat reinsurance rates year-to-date in 2026 is the steepest decline for this Index since it fell by almost 17% in 2014.
Even in 2016, just prior to the bottom of the soft market, this Index only fell by just under 7%.
So, we’ve seen a meaningful erosion of hard market pricing gains so far in 2026, for US property cat reinsurance underwriters and ILS instruments exposed to US cat risks, but still these rates remain at historically high levels.
In fact, since the bottom of the soft market in 2017, the Guy Carpenter US property cat RoL Index remains up by 66%.
While, prior to the recent hard market in 2023, you’d have to go back as far as 2007 to find a time when this Index stood at a higher level.
Which drives home the fact pricing remains at high levels still in US property catastrophe reinsurance, but are now coming down at one of their faster paces in recent history.
It will be interesting to see where this Index goes at the mid-year renewals, when much more of the US catastrophe book will be renewed, as well as regions such as Florida.
Dynamics would currently suggest a further decline is likely, but what the downward trajectory is remains to be seen.
Read all of our reinsurance renewals coverage here.
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