property catastrophe

In the wake of the 2026 January reinsurance renewals, which saw double-digit declines in property catastrophe reinsurance pricing, analysts at J.P. Morgan have highlighted that while attachment points have largely held up, this has driven profitability to be likely better than the pricing levels suggest.

With property catastrophe reinsurance rates significantly softening at the January 2026 renewals, rating agency Fitch forecasts that further softening will continue into the April, June, and July renewals later this year.

At the January 1st 2026 reinsurance renewals property catastrophe rates were broadly softer around the globe as the weight of capital in the market depressed prices, while broker Guy Carpenter’s indices show that rates-on-line softened fastest in Europe.

According to equity analysts from Mizuho Americas, property catastrophe reinsurance rates are expected to remain adequate but less profitable in 2026 across peak zones and perils, while reinsurers are projected to deliver strong returns in 2025, aided by retained earnings growth and increasing ILS participation.

With 2025 marking the fifth consecutive year in which global catastrophe claims have exceeded $100 billion, analysts at J.P. Morgan emphasised that the impact on reinsurers has been less damaging, in the main because higher cedant retentions continue to shift a greater share of losses back to primary carriers.

Following a field trip to Bermuda, analysts at TD Cowen have concluded from their discussions on the island that higher-layer property catastrophe reinsurance rates could be down 20% or more at the January 2026 renewals, while attachment points are largely holding, but the renewal is seen as running late.

While rate decreases have persisted within catastrophe exposed property reinsurance, analysts at Amwins believe they are beginning to trend toward moderation, anticipating that any continued downward movement will likely shift to between 10% to 15% as 1/1 approaches, but also noting that underwriting standards have loosened modestly.

While moderate softening in U.S. property catastrophe reinsurance rates has been observed throughout 2025, rating agency AM Best projects that further stabilisation or minor price shifts will take place at the upcoming January renewals.

Atrium, a specialty insurer at the Lloyd’s insurance and reinsurance marketplace has been granted “in principle” approval from Lloyd’s to launch its new delegated property catastrophe and weather and climate risk-focused Syndicate 2026 and has secured backing from both traditional and institutional capital sources.

Thierry Léger, CEO of global reinsurer SCOR, said this morning that it’s too early to tell whether property catastrophe reinsurance remains attractively priced at the end of year renewals, but his company is anticipating heightened competition in the market as capital build-up outstrips still-rising demand.