Typhoon Jebi to give Japan another soaking, damaging winds

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Typhoon Jebi sees Japan facing another typhoon landfall in the next roughly 30 hours, as the storm tracks rapidly towards western Japan with sustained winds of 115 mph and gusts of 144 mph and higher.

Update 4th September: Typhoon Jebi’s winds have weakened to sustained of roughly 86 mph and higher gusts, making it a strong category 1 equivalent as landfall approaches. Rainfall and some wind damage will be the mahor threats to land.

Typhoon Jebi is expected to weaken somewhat on approach to Japan, but with a landfall forecast for a region already affected by recent typhoon Cimaron, rains from the previous typhoon Soulik, and the soaking received in the extreme rainfall in July this year, further impacts from rainfall are possible.

Typhoon Jebi forecast track or path

Typhoon Jebi forecast track or path

Insurance and reinsurance interests in Japan have faced multiple severe weather losses in the last few months, from extreme rainfall, which it’s said could be up to a $4 billion industry loss, to extreme drought, as well as a number of typhoons.

Of course this could mean some aggregate deductibles are eroding in the major insurer reinsurance programs in the area, to which typhoon Jebi could also add.

Typhoon Jebi is expected to make landfall on Tuesday local time as a weak Category 2 or still strong Category 1 equivalent typhoon with higher gusts, in an area not far from major cities Osaka and Kyoto.

These cities could both experience some hurricane force winds, as typhoon Jebi is expected to move rapidly inland, meaning weakening may not occur as quickly as is seen in other storms.

However the fact moving pace of typhoon Jebi could also help to lessen the flood impacts from this storm, as rainfall will be moving quickly northwards as Jebi accelerates across the country.

That said, the threat of flash flooding and landslides will exist, particularly in areas already soaked in recent weeks.

Coastal flooding is also anticipated to be a threat, with a storm surge expected for low-lying coastal areas.

In terms of rainfall, despite the expected fast-moving nature of typhoon Jebi the meteorological agency forecasts up to 11 inches of rainfall over Tuesday, with half that amount widely experienced, in some areas as the storm passes. This could be sufficient for flooding and damage from landslides.

Typhoon Jebi could be the strongest storm of 2018 so far, but may not be the most impactful due to its quick passage. However, with higher wind gusts expected the potential for damage to properties remains high and insurance and reinsurance interests may be exposed.

For ILS market interests the main risk of exposure will be through aggregation of losses across the multiple severe weather events that have hit Japan in recent months. As the typhoon season continues it could bring more chance of aggregate reinsurance layers attaching, resulting in losses to the global market.

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