Tropical Storm Risk, a research group backed by Aon Benfield, RSA and Crawford & Company, have stuck with their prediction for an above normal activity Atlantic hurricane season in 2011 and have slightly increased their prediction for the number of storms expected to form. Their last prediction (from April) can be found here, and our article last week here compared their prediction with other recognised hurricane forecasters (a new comparison table can be found at the foot of this article).
The new prediction continues to suggest that the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season will see activity 25% above the long term norm, with a 55% chance of above normal activity, 29% chance of normal activity and 16% chance of a below normal activity season.
They predict that 14 storms will be named as tropical storms, with 8 becoming hurricanes and 4 intensifying into major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher.
Worryingly for reinsurers and the catastrophe bond sector TSR predict a 59% chance of above normal U.S. landfall of storms, they expect 4 storms will strike the U.S. coast and that 2 of them will be hurricanes.
Professor Mark Saunders one of the leaders of the Tropical Storm Risk group said: “At present all main climate indicators point to the 2011 hurricane season being above-norm but less active for basin activity than 2010, and more active for U.S. landfalling activity than 2010. If a major hurricane does not strike the U.S. in 2011 it will be the first occasion going back to at least 1900 where six consecutive years have passed without such an event.”
The next forecasts will be issued right at the start of the season at the end of May and beginning of June. It’s unlikely that forecasts will decrease much if at all.
You can compare all the latest forecasts from the main sources below:
|Forecaster||Named storms||Hurricanes||Major hurricanes|
|NOAA||12 – 18||6 – 10||3 – 6|
|Colorado State University||16||9||5|
|Tropical Storm Risk||14||8||4|
|Weather Trends International||14||9||6|
Update: We’ve added Weather Trends International’s forecast numbers thanks to the comment below.