At this still early stage following the tornadoes and severe storms that struck the United States this weekend, it’s not yet possible to rule out any loss impacts to ILS investors, according to Twelve Capital.
The insurance-linked securities (ILS) and reinsurance focused asset manager said that it is not yet aware of any specific threats to catastrophe bonds.
But also highlighted that tornado losses are most typically felt by aggregate cat bond structures, especially in a year where other loss events have already begun the aggregation, such as from hurricanes.
In 2021, with impacts from hurricane season, possibly wildfires, other severe convective weather outbreaks and possibly even the winter storms earlier in the year to aggregate across, it’s not yet possible to rule out some erosion of deductibles.
As we explained earlier today, the most likely source of actual losses for the ILS market from the tornadoes would be via collateralized and likely private quota share reinsurance arrangements.
There is a chance there could be some excess of loss impacts, but these would depend on a specific insurer being particularly exposed to the tornado events, we believe.
Aside from that, aggregate deductible erosion is the other most likely point of contact for ILS investments to be affected, although that would be expected to be largely on a mark-to-market basis.
Twelve Capital said that, “This is a developing situation and damage is still being assessed, but very early estimates put the potential losses in the billions of dollars. Investors are reminded that even large tornados are typically not sufficient to cause losses to Cat Bonds on a stand-alone basis. Most tornado-related losses in the ILS market in past years have been through aggregate structures, where significant deductible erosion from multiple events (typically from additional hurricanes) caused harm to Cat Bond investors. At this stage, Twelve Capital is not aware of any immediate threats for Cat Bond investors, but given the lack of reliable insured loss estimates at this stage, impacts to ILS investors can also not (yet) safely be ruled out at this point.”
We’ll need some time to pass before any more reliable loss estimates emerge, so it could be while before ILS investors and ILS fund managers gain any clarity over potential effects to their positions and portfolios.
There is a strong chance some cat bonds are marked down a little at the end of this week, but these would be expected to be aggregate cat bonds that have already experienced deductible erosion and that cover severe thunderstorm risks.