hurricane Helene 2024

With the National Flood Insurance Program’s (NFIP) latest loss estimate for 2024’s hurricane Helene understood to be standing higher than the attachment levels for a number of its FloodSmart Re catastrophe bonds, we have learned of further extensions of maturity and one tranche being allowed to mature as now deemed not at-risk.

Losses to the Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund (FHCF) from hurricanes Helene and Milton in 2024 are set to come in lower than estimates, as its administrators now put the 2024 hurricane season loss at just $3.01 billion for the Cat Fund that provides a reinsurance-like reimbursement for a portion of a residential property insurers’ loss.

Having increased its estimate for National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) losses from hurricane Helene, we’re told that FEMA has gone ahead with the partial repayment of principal and also extended the maturity dates for two of its FloodSmart Re catastrophe bond tranches.

The U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) has updated its estimate for National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) losses from hurricane Helene, stretching the top-end of the range to now as much as $7.4 billion.

Artemis has learned that FEMA has increased its estimate for National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) losses from hurricane Helene, raising the figure to $6.75 billion and as a result two FloodSmart Re catastrophe bond tranches have had their maturity dates extended, with partial repayments of principal to be made.

According to global reinsurance giant Munich Re, both economic and insurance market losses from tropical cyclone activity around the globe in 2024 are “significantly higher” than averages, with the insured total for the year estimated at $51 billion.

The Lloyd’s insurance and reinsurance market is expecting losses from hurricanes Helene and Milton to fall within a $1.8 billion to $3.4 billion range, but speaking today Patrick Tiernan, Chief of Markets, said he expects it will trend towards the lower end.

US insurer Allstate has confirmed its pre-tax loss from hurricane Milton at $102 million, at which level it seems possible the Sanders Re II Ltd. (Series 2024-2) catastrophe bond may face a loss, while the companies year-to-date pre-tax catastrophe losses have reached $4.84 billion after October.

Analysis by Neptune Flood Research Group of FEMA’s National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) data suggests a current projection for up to $2.5 billion of losses from hurricane Milton, while the 2024 total NFIP claims burden could approach as much as $10.5 billion.

Global reinsurance company Swiss Re reported its third-quarter and nine month 2024 results this morning, revealing that Q3 large natural catastrophe losses of $743 million dominated the year-to-dates $813 million, while hurricane Milton is expected to fall below $300 million for the company in Q4.