2024 hurricane season

Moody’s RMS Event Response has estimated that the total U.S. private market insured losses from the recent Hurricanes Helene and Milton will likely range between $35 billion and $55 billion.

According to analysis by Morningstar DBRS, the total private and public insurance market loss from hurricane Milton is expected to fall in the upper-half of a $30 billion to $60 billion range, with flood insurance losses to the NFIP expected to be up to $10 billion of the total.

According to analysis from ICEYE, the provider of satellite data and services to inform decision-making and analysis, more buildings may have been impacted by flooding from hurricane Milton in Florida than was seen with hurricane Helene.

In the wake of hurricane Milton’s landfall and damaging impacts on the state of Florida last week the catastrophe bond market fell by 1.34% and a range of outstanding cat bonds had their secondary marks priced down, some more considerably than others.

Hurricane Milton has had a less severe impact on catastrophe bonds than had been feared as the storm approached Florida last week, but this could still be sufficient to drive risk premiums higher according to specialist investment manager Plenum Investments.

Responding to the potential impact of losses from hurricane Milton, the catastrophe bond market has fallen by just 1.34% at the end of week pricing of the index calculated by Swiss Re Capital Markets, while the US wind specific version of the cat bond index fell by only 3.64%.

Analysis undertaken by specialist investment manager Twelve Capital suggests an insurance industry loss in the range of $20 billion to $50 billion from hurricane Milton, with a 0% to 4% principal loss possible for the catastrophe bond market.

The catastrophe bond market is expected to fall in the wake of hurricane Milton. But, as with other historical events, at least some of that drawdown is likely to be recovered and after the storm cat bond market yields are likely to rise, according to Jeffrey Davis, Partner & Portfolio Manager, Investments at Elementum Advisors, […]

Hurricane Milton is initially estimated to result in insurance and reinsurance industry losses below $50 billion, according to Euler ILS Partners, at which level the notional impact to insurance-linked securities (ILS) portfolios is not expected to be substantial.

Yesterday, all of the 1940’s Act registered US mutual investment funds that allocate to catastrophe bonds and other insurance-linked securities (ILS) increased their net asset values (NAV), in some cases recovering a meaningful percentage of the declines recorded due to hurricane Milton.