2024 hurricane season

According to global reinsurance giant Munich Re, both economic and insurance market losses from tropical cyclone activity around the globe in 2024 are “significantly higher” than averages, with the insured total for the year estimated at $51 billion.

According to specialist insurance-linked securities (ILS) fund manager Twelve Capital, while the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will result in insurance industry losses of between $30 billion and $50 billion, only muted impacts are expected for reinsurance and catastrophe bonds.

With another week of insights gathered on the potential for any losses from hurricane Milton, thanks to industry loss estimates and catastrophe bond pricing, the net asset values (NAVs) of US mutual investment funds that allocate to catastrophe bonds and other insurance-linked securities (ILS) were mostly marked up again at the end of last week.

Hurricane Milton is estimated to have caused total insured losses of between $17 billion and $28 billion, CoreLogic has said, with this figure including losses to the NFIP, bringing the firm’s estimate in towards the lower-end of those seen so far.

Moody’s RMS Event Response has estimated that private market insured losses from hurricane Milton will fall in a range between $22 billion and $36 billion, with a best estimate of $26 billion.

Another estimate for insurance and reinsurance industry losses from hurricane Milton has been released, with Verisk saying it anticipates the private market insured loss will fall in a range from $30 billion to as much as $50 billion.

Having shown a divergence in manager strategies as NAVs moved in different directions at times and by different amounts as hurricane Milton approached, the US mutual investment funds that allocate to catastrophe bonds and other insurance-linked securities (ILS) diverged again at pricing on Friday, but have since stabilised having incorporated post-landfall net asset value adjustments.

Catastrophe bond fund manager Icosa Investments has highlighted current uncertainty over the level of losses the market may face from hurricane Milton, but notes that while some principal losses seem likely there remains a high level of uncertainty over certain structures, especially aggregate cat bonds that have much of their risk periods left to run.

The insurance industry loss from hurricane Milton in the US from wind, storm surge, and inland flooding has been estimated at close to $36 billion by Karen Clark & Company (KCC), although this excludes insured damage to boats, offshore properties, and losses to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP).

Analysis from Milliman concludes that hurricane Milton will end up a relatively minor catastrophe loss event for the insurance-linked securities (ILS) market, based on an estimate of insurance market losses in the $20 billion to $40 billion range.