PERILS AG, the industry loss data provider, has estimated the insurance and reinsurance market property loss from European windstorms Draghi and Eberhard at just EUR 740 million.
The estimate for these two low pressure systems seems perhaps low, as storm Eberhard alone had a modelled loss estimate of up to EUR 1.5 billion from AIR Worldwide, while Eberhard was estimated to have caused as much as EUR 600 million of insured property damage in Germany alone by actuaries.
However, differences in methodologies and early estimates versus collected loss data, will account for any differences.
The market had been largely expecting an industry impact of around EUR 1 billion from storm Eberhard we understand, hence PERILS aggregated estimate using claims data collected from re/insurers could draw a sigh of relief from some that had been fearing the storms potential to eat into some reinsurance layers.
Dragi was the weaker of the two low pressure storm systems and struck on 9th March 2019, immediately followed by Eberhard on 10th March and affected a similar area across the British Isles, France, the Benelux states, Germany and Switzerland.
Given the difficulties in allocation specific insured losses to either named system, PERILS event loss figure combines losses from both events.
Still, the industry loss from Dragi-Eberhard is the largest in another otherwise benign 2018/2019 European winter storm season.
The market has not suffered a really significant European windstorm loss for some years now and this has amplified the pressure on reinsurance pricing in the region, resulting in the very soft market that has proved unattractive to many ILS players.
PERILS notes that for most of the individual affected countries, the event loss return period was not considered unusual, except for Belgium, where the loss level caused by Dragi-Eberhard is expected to be reached or exceeded once every 10 years.
PERILS also said today that it will not report on European windstorm Bennet (also known as Freya), as the extratropical cyclone, which affected mainly France, Germany and Switzerland on 4th March 2019, did not exceed the firms reporting threshold of EUR 200m.
Bennet was estimated to have caused around EUR 200 million of property loss in Germany alone by actuaries Meyerthole Siems Kohlruss (MSK).
It’s important to note that this is the first estimate for Draghi and Eberhard, so there is the potential for the industry loss total to rise.
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