The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) have updated their hurricane forecast and have increased the number of storms that they predict to form over the course of the rest of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season.
The updated forecast calls for more tropical storms to form, up slight to 14 – 19 named storms now predicted and more likelihood of hurricane formation, it was 6 – 10 and that’s now changed to 7 – 10 hurricanes forecast. However their prediction for severe hurricanes has dropped from 3 – 6 to 3 – 5 predicted to form.
The NOAA says that they see a higher likelihood (an 85% chance) of an above average storm season now than they did in May in their pre-season forecast. They say that conditions are ripe for storm development in the Atlantic through the rest of August to October with the month of October particularly likely to be conducive to storm formation. They also mention the possibility of a La Niña event later in the season which could contribute to increased storm activity.
So far this year the storm season has been benign, even tropical storm Emily dissipated yesterday and now has a very low chance of threatening Florida, but the forecasts suggest that the season could spring into action at any time during the coming weeks.
Keep up to date on our 2011 Atlantic hurricane season page.