It’s that time of year when we anticipate a range of seasonal hurricane forecasts to be published over the coming weeks, but long-range forecasts are already calling for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season to be extremely active, with one forecaster calling for a “hurricane season from hell” in 2024.
The climatological shift from last year’s El Niño is expected to drive La Niña conditions over the coming months, with some now anticipating a strong La Niña by the accepted peak months of the Atlantic hurricane season.
El Niño is said to be weakening rapidly and La Niña conditions set to emerge, which typically weakens wind shear and provides for atmospheric conditions that are more conducive to tropical storms and hurricanes forming.
It means the tropical region where storms form is expected to see lower wind shear across a much larger area, while wind shear would also be expected to be lower nearer to land and in the Gulf of Mexico as well, under La Niña conditions.
Adding to expectations that the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season could be particularly active is the fact the sea surface temperatures are already between 1 and 3 degrees Celsius above normal in areas where hurricanes tend to form or get their ocean-derived fuel from.
Forecasters have said that currently there are no factors against the 2024 hurricane season being a very active one, while all factors are supportive of an active year ahead.
In fact, sea surface temperatures are already said to be at June and near July levels in parts of the Atlantic, suggesting the ocean could already be primed to fuel storm formation as soon as conditions become conducive.
The timing of a shift to La Niña could still be critical though and the earlier it occurs the more likely the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is very active, experts say.
Already we have two long-range forecasts to digest, both of which suggest 2024 could be a challenging Atlantic hurricane year for insurance, reinsurance and insurance-linked securities (ILS) market interests.
First, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), which right back in December said that Atlantic tropical activity could be 30% above the near and 50% above the long-term norms.
TSR calls for 20 tropical storms to form during the 2024 Atlantic season, 9 of which are forecast to become hurricanes and 4 to develop into intense or major hurricanes, driving a seasonal Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of 160.
TSR cited the very warm Atlantic ocean temperatures in that December forecast, but had not at that stage suggested a shift to La Nina was likely. TSR will update its forecast again in the coming weeks and we could see these high storm numbers increase, if the forecaster expects La Nina to be a significant factor for the 2024 hurricane season.
Also in December, forecast firm Weather Bell said that 2024 could be the “hurricane season from hell.”
Weather Bell opts for between 25 and 30 named storms, an extraordinary amount if that plays out, with 14 to 16 hurricanes and 6 to 8 major hurricanes, while ACE is forecast at between 200 and 240.
Weather Bell said, “A hurricane season from hell is shaping up for 2024. Very high levels of activity should be prepared for in areas that were essentially left untouched in 2023.
“The El Niño will reverse to a La Niña, while the Atlantic basin will be ideal for development. Very warm water in the northeastern Pacific is likely to mean the kind of pattern over North America that was similar to 2005, 2007, and 2020. This invited storms to reach the U.S.”
Weather Bell also noted that “the climate hypothesis that this El Niño could reverse quickly is quite possible,” which now appears to be set to become the consensus among most forecasters.
Weather Bell’s Joe Bastardi also noted recently that wind shear forecasts for this season look “textbook” for supporting the early forecast numbers.
AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter recently commented on how the Atlantic tropics look for 2024.
“The current El Niño pattern that is in place is forecast to transition into a La Niña pattern during the second half of the hurricane season,” he explained.
While AccuWeather Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok said, “The second half of the hurricane season is likely to be very active, as conditions will be more favorable for tropical systems.”
Porter also noted that water temperatures in the Main Development Region (MDR) of the Atlantic at the end of January were a 65% higher than the next closest year.
“Any storms that do form will have the potential to rapidly strengthen, even close to land, due to the exceptionally warm waters,” Porter explained.
While Pastelok said that Texas and the Gulf Coast could face a more significant threat of direct tropical storm impacts in 2024.
The forecasts for very high storm numbers will depend on La Niña occurring earlier in the season, it seems.
At least, insurance, reinsurance and ILS market interests will certainly hope that is the case, as a compressed second-half that featured double-digit storm numbers could prove an extremely difficult period.
Of course, how difficult, challenging and ultimately costly the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season turns out to be will depend on where storms head towards.
Land-falling hurricanes are the main threat to reinsurance, catastrophe bond and ILS market interests, especially now frequency exposure has been reduced, thanks to stricter coverage terms, less aggregate reinsurance being written and higher deductibles and attachment points now being in place.
As ever though, it only requires a single major hurricane to make landfall in a region of US coastline with high exposure concentration values for significant loss costs to flow through reinsurance and ILS markets.
Which makes watching the forecasts important as the 2024 hurricane season approaches. But more important still is watching the season as it progresses and tracking each storm closely, something that in 2024 could be a more significant burden for science, risk modelling and meteorology teams in the industry, if the season proves to be even half as active as some have suggested it could be.
Track the 2024 Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane season on our dedicated page and we’ll update you as new information emerges.
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