Florida Citizens estimates losses & LAE from hurricane Nicole at $62.5m

Florida’s property insurer of last resort Citizens Property Insurance Corporation has provided a modelled estimate of its ultimate losses from recent hurricane Nicole, pegging the total at just $62.5 million.

The figure is a modelled estimate of indemnity losses plus loss adjustment expenses (LAE), but does not include any increase for either litigation or inflationary effects.

As of 2pm local time yesterday November 16th, Florida Citizens had received 1,679 claims after hurricane Nicole.

The insurer estimates the claims burden could reach as many as 5,000, so there’s a chance the estimate may rise over time if that number was reached.

Hurricane Nicole was the second hurricane to make Florida landfall of the 2022 season, after the far more impactful hurricane Ian.

Nicole made landfall in Florida on November 10th 2022, near Vero Beach, Florida, with Category 1 hurricane winds and storm surge, driving impacts to a wide swathe of the state given the storm’s large size, including some areas affected by hurricane Ian in September.

As we reported earlier, risk modeller RMS has given a best-estimate of $1.6 billion for the insurance market loss from hurricane Nicole, with a range topping out just under $2 billion.

For Florida Citizens, hurricane Nicole’s claims coming so soon after hurricane Ian’s impacts may complicate the claims process in certain cases, but overall the storm won’t be particularly significant and will be well-manageable within the insurers’ capital arrangements and surplus.

As a reminder, Florida’s Citizens Property Insurance Corporation recently increased its loss estimate for hurricane Ian, raising it to $3.8 billion.

At that level some private market reinsurance capacity will likely come into play and recoveries be made, but Citizens believes, at this stage, that its catastrophe bonds won’t be triggered by Ian.