Klotzbach & Gray, the well respected pair of hurricane forecasters at Colorado State University, have published the latest update to their forecast of Atlantic season hurricane activity and landfall strike probability for 2011. They stick with their original predictions of 16 named tropical storms during the 2011 season, with 9 expected to make hurricane status and 5 becoming major hurricanes (111mph or over).
We’re two months into the 2011 season now and currently the 5th named storm, Tropical Storm Emily, is making her way through the Caribbean and is predicted to come very close to Florida on Sunday. So for the season to be as active as has been predicted we’re going to see some intensification of storm formation. Earlier forecasts suggested that it would be from late August onwards that the U.S. coast would have to keep its eyes open.
This latest forecast continues the prediction for a higher risk than last season for the U.S. Klotzback & Gray ‘anticipate a well above-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall’ although their published probability percentages have dropped slightly since their April forecast.