2024 US convective storm season already breaking hail records: CoreLogic

According to data, analytics and modelling firm CoreLogic, the 2024 severe and convective weather season in the United States is already breaking records for hail, with a recent event outstripping even those from the costly year of 2023.

Dozens of severe convective storms were spawned across the central U.S. on Wednesday, March 13th and Thursday, March 14th, with material and at times destructive property damage seen, after a strong upper-level disturbance drove the weather pattern.

As a result, “The beginning of the 2024 severe convective storm season has already broken single day records from 2023 — a year infamous for record-setting insured severe convective storm losses,” CoreLogic said.

Hail as large as softballs was reported and CoreLogic notes 214 hail reports on Thursday, March 14th.

By March 15th, 78 of those hail reports indicated hail greater than or equal to 2 inches in diameter, which CoreLogic said has set a new single-day record for all National Weather Service offices across the United States.

In addition, hail impacts on March 13th in Kansas and Missouri and March 14th in Missouri, Illinois, and Oklahoma were “worse than any single day in 2023,” the company explained.

On the back of these outbreaks, “CoreLogic estimated that hail greater than 1 inch in diameter affected approximately 660,000 single- and multifamily residential properties across the country over both days,” the company further explained.

Kansas and Missouri were particularly affected, with large hail greater than 3 inches in diameter falling on nearly 1,800 homes in Johnson County, Kansas. Hail this large is said to be severe enough to cause extensive roof damage, including entire replacement, CoreLogic explained.

After a particularly costly year of severe weather, convective storm losses and in particular hail in 2023, 2024 looks like it could already have a costly start, although it’s worth noting the first two months were quieter than anticipated by many.

“It is too early to predict the severe convective storm impact on carriers’ loss ratios or if 2024 will be a repeat of last year. However, it appears that 2024 is picking up where 2023 left off in terms of severe hail activity,” CoreLogic said.

Adding, “It is imperative that insurers understand and quantify their portfolio’s severe convective storm risk in order to avoid high catastrophe losses by year-end in 2024. If this year is to repeat 2023 and a major hurricane was to make landfall in the U.S., insured losses could be catastrophic.”

Insured losses from severe thunderstorms were estimated to have reached a record high of US $60 billion in 2023.

It drove significant impacts to US P&C insurers, but less to reinsurance capital given the higher attachment points and reduction in aggregate coverage offered.

In 2024, there may be slightly more aggregate limits at risk and more capital deploying a little lower down, but still the majority of these types of losses are likely to fall to the retentions of the primary market.

Insurance and reinsurance broker Aon’s Impact Forecasting unit commented on the severe weather from this same period by saying, “Although reports of strong tornadoes continue to emerge at the time of writing, initial assessments from
officials indicate substantial damage. Given the additional wind, hail, flooding, and snow impacts from
this past week, total economic and insured losses could reach into the hundreds of millions USD.”

Impact Forecasting’s report covers the entire week, of severe and convective weather, so more than just the hail events.

However, one point to look out for, is how this March severe weather might elevate insurers aggregate losses, with Allstate naturally the one most relevant for the ILS market to keep in mind given the exposure through one of the Sanders catastrophe bonds.