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Xactanalysis Insights and PCS

2011 Atlantic hurricane activity to be 40% above the norm, says early forecast


An early forecast of the long range outlook for the 2011 Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane season has been published by Tropical Storm Risk. They’re the first of the forecasters we follow to publish a long range outlook for the Atlantic storm basin for 2011.

Long range forecasts tend to overestimate (usually) and TSR admit as much by saying precision can be low, however it’s valuable to get this early insight into how active next years storm season could be at this early stage. Also, early forecasts of more active than normal seasons do tend to be accurate on the single factor of activity.

They anticipate an active season with 4 intense hurricanes, 8.4 hurricanes and 15.6 named tropical storms. That’s a similar forecast to the early ones for 2010 which turned out to be fairly accurate on the number of storms to form. TSR’s early forecast predicts 2.1 hurricanes and 4.9 tropical storms will make landfall on the U.S. coastline.

Of course, the 2010 hurricane season has shown that landfall predictions don’t necessarily turn out to be accurate.

Read the full forecast from Tropical Storm Risk.

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