Atlantic Hurricane Season

The Weather Company and Atmospheric G2 are forecasting that the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season could be among the most active ever, while they also warn of a strong Bermuda High that could set in and steer storms further west towards the United States and Caribbean.

Researchers from North Carolina State University have forecast that the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will be an active one, with the number of named storms predicted to be “significantly higher than the long-term average” and a special mention for the Gulf of Mexico, with up to seven named storms expected there.

Global insurance and reinsurance industry losses from natural catastrophes in the first quarter of 2024 were 10% higher than the most recent 10-year average at $20 billion, amid a continuation of high severe convective storm (SCS) activity in the US, according to reinsurance broker Gallagher Re.

Investment manager Twelve Capital feels that the spread being taken when investing into catastrophe bonds compensates for the shorter-term risk being taken from the hurricane peril, noting that pricing of cat bonds is based on a longer-term view than just a single hurricane season.

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) has today raised its forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, now saying it expects a “hyperactive” level of activity, with 11 Atlantic hurricanes now anticipated and 3 forecast likely to make landfall in the US.

Colorado State University’s tropical meteorology team led by Phil Klotzbach have issued their first forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, estimating that 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes will be seen, while landfall probabilities are also forecast to be elevated.

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season could result in an above average number of direct impacts to the United States, with the Texas coast, Florida Panhandle, South Florida and the Carolinas all facing a higher-than-average risk this year, AccuWeather has said.

An increasing number of forecasters and meteorologists say to expect a very busy 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, with conditions looking primed for high levels of tropical cyclone activity and WeatherTiger’s models indicate a 75% chance the hurricane season will count as hyperactive, while its model also suggests elevated landfall risk for the United States.

According to Artemis’ sources, activity in the industry-loss warranty (ILW) market has increased in the last few weeks, as reinsurance and insurance-linked securities (ILS) markets prepare for what is anticipated to be an active 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

Speaking today at the SIFMA ILS conference in Miami, Phil Klotzbach, Ph.D., a Senior Research Scientist at the Department of Atmospheric Science of the Colorado State University, provided some insights into what to expect for the coming 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.