Typhoon Dujuan forecast to strike Taiwan as strong Cat. 3 storm

Typhoon Dujuan is currently a strong category 4 storm which is on the verge of achieving super typhoon status and is forecast to make a direct hit on Taiwan late Monday local-time as a strong category 3 storm.

Currently packing sustained winds of 145mph (just short of super typhoon status), with gusts of 175mph, Dujuan could be the biggest threat of the season to Taiwan and some of the southern Japanese Ryukyu islands, as well as a threat to insurance and reinsurance, both local and potentially international players.

The latest forecasts suggest that typhoon Dujuan will at least maintain intensity on approach to Taiwan, with wind shear low and sea surface temperatures high. Some weakening is expected just before Dujuan’s eye makes landfall, sometime late on Monday, but the current expectation is for a very strong Cat 3 typhoon to hit Taiwan with damaging winds and torrential rainfall.

Typhoon Dujuan forecast path. Tracking towards Taiwan landfall

Accuweather explains the expected impacts to Taiwan and to China afterwards:

In northern Taiwan, wind gusts of 130 to 160 kph (80 to 100 mph) could batter Taipei causing some structural damage and significant power outages. Rainfall will likely exceed 250 mm (10 inches) in many areas with 500 mm (20 inches) of rain possible in some areas. Flooding and mudslides may ensue.

Northeastern Taiwan, especially the mountains, will bear the brunt of Dujuan’s fury. Destructive wind gusts in excess of 195 kph (120 mph) will batter the coastline and eastern mountains of Yilan and northern Hualien counties.

“Rainfall could easily exceed 600 mm (2 feet) in the northern mountains of Taiwan,” stated AccuWeather Meteorologist Adam Douty.

Impacts to Taiwan from Dujuan will likely be very similar to what the island endured when once-Super Typhoon Soudelor slammed onshore.

After barreling across Taiwan, Dujuan will take aim at eastern China.

Cooler water and land interaction with Taiwan will cause Dujuan to weaken to strength equal to that of a Category 1 hurricane prior to reaching eastern China on Tuesday, along the corridor from Quanzhou to Fuzhou.

However, Douty warned “Dujuan would still be a typhoon capable of bringing flooding rain and damaging winds.”

While the threat for wind damage will largely be confined to coastal areas of Fujian in eastern China, the threat for flooding would extend significantly further inland with 75-150 mm (3-6 inches) of rain across a large portion of Fujian and southern Zhejiang.

Despite making landfall in eastern China, Japan and South Korea may not totally escape impacts from Dujuan. Moisture from the typhoon could still interact with a frontal boundary to cause potentially flooding downpours to spread across the region later in the week.

Typhoon Dujuan satellite image

Taiwan was battered by typhoon Soudelor just a month ago. Dujuan is another large and intense typhoon, with another threat of extreme rainfall, flooding, landslides, as well as damage from category 3 strength winds.

Typhoon Dujuan coincides with a so-called supermoon, which means that tides are expected to be higher than normal anyway, which could increase the threat from storm surge along the coast where Dujuan makes landfall.

China is at risk of a category 1 landfall, when Dujuan has crossed Taiwan, but the biggest threat at that time will be rainfall and flooding. China has suffered severe flooding due to typhoons this year and Dujuan looks set to do the same.

There are no catastrophe bonds at risk from typhoon losses in Taiwan or China, but there could be an insurance impact that may worry some reinsurance companies. It’s too early to predict any kind of major impact, but reinsurance contracts will be exposed, which as usual means there could be some collateralized reinsurance layers from ILS managers also at risk due to the typhoon.

Latest update from Impact Forecasting:

LATEST DETAILS ON TYPHOON DUJUAN

COORDINATES: 23.3° north, 123.7° east (previous location: 22.2° north, 127.4° east)
LOCATION: 300 kilometers (185 miles) southeast of Taipei, Taiwan
MOVEMENT: west-northwestward at 20 kph (13 mph) (previous: westward at 13 kph (8 mph))
WINDS: 230 kph (145 mph) with gusts to 280 kph (175 mph) (previous: 210 kph (130 mph))
RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS: 240 kilometers (150 miles)
RADIUS OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS: 95 kilometers (60 miles)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 929 millibars (previous: 937 millibars)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE RANKING*: Category 4

LANDFALL AND LOSS PROBABILITIES

FORECAST LANDFALL LOCATION: Near Hualien City, Hualien County, Taiwan
FORECAST LANDFALL TIMEFRAME: Monday evening, local time
24-HOUR SIGNIFICANT LOCAL INSURED LOSS POTENTIAL: MEDIUM-HIGH

DISCUSSION

Typhoon Dujuan, located approximately 300 kilometers (185 miles) southeast of Taipei, Taiwan, is currently tracking west-northwestward at 20 kph (13 mph). High-resolution, animated satellite imagery continues to show that the system is maintaining symmetrical, deep convective bands that are wrapping into a large 85-kilometer (53-mile) wide eye, allowing the current position to be determined with high confidence. The initial intensity estimate is based on Dvorak intensity estimates from all agencies that report to the JTWC. Upper-level analysis indicates that Dujuan remains in a region of low vertical wind shear with near radial outflow. The system is currently tracking along the southern periphery of a ridge of high pressure to the east.

Dujuan will maintain a west-northwestward track through the end of the forecast period under the steering influence of the high pressure ridge. The system is expected to begin to weaken as it impacts western Taiwan within 12 hours and tracks over the central mountains, emerging in the cool waters of the Taiwan Strait. Beyond Tuesday morning (local time), Dujuan will make landfall in China and continue to decay as frictional forces will cause the system to completely dissipate by Wednesday morning (local time). Additionally, an approaching mid-latitude trough will force the system to turn more poleward at the end of the forecast period. Forecast model guidance is in good agreement throughout the forecast period, lending high confidence to the JTWC forecast which is in line with model guidance.

So far, more than 3,000 individuals have been evacuated from Taiwan’s Green and Orchid Islands with more evacuations expected in western Taiwan prior to Dujuan making landfall. More than 100 emergency evacuation shelters were set up and ferry services had been suspended. High speed rail services and flights to and from Taiwan were expected to be suspended by mid-afternoon on Monday (local time). Many businesses and schools in Taiwan were already expected to be closed on Monday due to the Mid-Autumn Festival celebrations.

The images on this page will update as typhoon Dujuan approaches Taiwan and the animation below shows the forecast position and wind speed.