PERILS lowers loss estimate for European storms Elon-Felix to €328m

PERILS AG has lowered its insurance industry loss estimate for January 2015’s European windstorms Elon-Felix from the last report of €335m down to a reduced €328m, which is back to where the first estimate for this storm was reported.

It’s unusual to see the loss estimate reduced, windstorm losses typically rise through the various reporting intervals, but it does demonstrate the process that PERILS undertakes to reach the most accurate representation of an industry insured loss that it can.

PERILS AG, provider of industry-wide European catastrophe exposure, industry loss data and indices, last reported on European windstorm Elon-Felix in April when it updated the loss estimate to €335m, a 2% increase from its first estimate which had also been €328m in February.

Elon-Felix affected Western and Northern Europe from 8th to 11th January 2015, causing the majority of the insured losses to occur in the countries of Denmark, Germany, Norway, Sweden and the United Kingdom. storm is also known as Dagmar-Egon in Denmark and Sweden, and as Nina in Norway.

Today’s third estimate takes the insurance industry loss from Elon-Felix back down 2% to €328m again, with market loss data available at a higher level of granularity, with losses per CRESTA zone (two-digit postcode level) and per property line of business.

Elon-Felix remains no threat to exposed catastrophe bonds, likely only posing a small incremental threat on an aggregate loss basis for some reinsurance programmes, which as always could feature some involvement of insurance-linked securities (ILS) funds and their investors (due to collateralized reinsurance).

PERILS reporting schedule will see a fourth estimate revealed in January 2016.

European windstorm Elon-Felix map of maximum wind gust value. – Source: PERILS AG