The European windstorm season begins in December and runs for four months (roughly), but Lloyd’s of London says no one really ever knows what to expect from it. Unlike the Atlantic storm season, European windstorms are difficult to forecast and the season as a whole is almost impossible to forecast with any degree of accuracy at the moment.
The phenomena which affect the frequency and intensity of windstorms in Europe have timescales of one or two weeks, unlike the months and years of climatic factors built into long range hurricane forecasts.
European windstorms can cause heavy losses though and there is now a significant amount of reinsurance and also catastrophe bond risk capital exposed to windstorms which might hit north western Europe.
It’s hard to say whether we will ever get a reliable model to predict European windstorms but efforts are ongoing at all the risk modelling companies and re/insurers and brokers to gain the best forecast they possibly can (see information on Aon’s efforts here).
Read the full article from Lloyds.com here.