Winter storm Fern privately insured loss estimated at $6.7bn by KCC

Catastrophe risk modelling specialists at Karen Clark & Company (KCC) have pegged private insurance industry losses from winter storm Fern in the US at $6.7 billion, with estimated losses the highest in Texas and Tennessee.

Beginning on January 23rd, 2026, Winter storm Fern saw snow and ice hit more than 30 states, with daily minimum temperature records set in numerous locations, with records tied in several others.

According to Karen Clark, the combination of a low-pressure system, Fern, and an Arctic air mass which dipped southward from Canada, saw many parts of the US hit with significant ice accumulations, with at least an inch in northwestern Alabama, northern Louisiana, northern Mississippi, and Oklahoma.

Based on KCC’s US Winter Storm Model, the catastrophe risk modeller has estimated that the privately insured loss from the winter storm will be $6.7 billion, which includes privately insured damage to residential, commercial, and industrial properties from freeze, snow/ice, and wind.

Insurance and reinsurance broking group Aon reported last week that Fern is expected to cause insurance market losses of more than one billion dollars.

This estimate from KCC is a bit higher than many in the industry had been expecting, so perhaps has a greater chance of eroding retentions beneath some aggregate reinsurance structures, including catastrophe bonds.

As we wrote last month, investment manager Twelve Securis has warned that the winter storm event and freezing temperatures could contribute to the gradual erosion of aggregate limits in certain catastrophe bonds.

“Damage from sub-freezing temperatures will be more significant in the southern and southeast states since the low temperatures there were more anomalous and properties are generally less prepared for these low temperatures.

“In all, Fern caused damage and insured losses across more than 30 states. Estimated losses from Winter Storm Fern are highest in Texas and Tennessee,” said KCC.