Typhoon Melor (Nona) hits Philippines, wind, flood & surge threat

Typhoon Melor (known as Nona locally) is bearing down on a Category 3 or 4 landfall in the central Philippines in the coming hours. The Philippines is in the firing line for yet another typhoon, in this year of high activity in the Pacific tropical storm and cyclone regions.

Typhoon Melor, a late season storm named typhoon Nona in the Philippines, intensified on approach to the country, nearing super status. Some weakening has now occurred, prior to landfall, but still Melor remains a strong typhoon, with winds estimated around the 135mph point and gusts of 165mph or higher.

Typhoon Melor (Nona) forecast path across the Philippines

Typhoon Melor is expected to bring a storm surge of as high as 3 meters in some coastal areas near where the eye is making landfall. Rainfall is another key threat, with some forecasts calling for as much as 300-500mm locally along the path as Melor crosses the country.

Typhoon Melor satellite image

As with all typhoons impacting the Philippines, there is not expected to be a major insurance or reinsurance industry loss associated with Melor. With insurance and reinsurance penetration in Philippines still low, the impact will be largely economic.

Around 750,000 people have been evacuated across three provinces in advance of typhoon Melor’s landfall.

The latest update from Aon Benfield’s Impact Forecasting unit can be found below:

LATEST DETAILS ON TYPHOON MELOR

COORDINATES: 12.5° north, 125.8° east (previous location: 11.9° north, 130.2° east)
LOCATION: 570 kilometers (355 miles) east-southeast of Manila, Philippines
MOVEMENT: west at 20 kph (13 mph) (previous: west-northwest at 20 kph (13 mph))
WINDS: 205 kph (125 mph) with gusts to 250 kph (155 mph) (previous: 140 kph (85 mph))
RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS: 250 kilometers (155 miles)
RADIUS OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS: 65 kilometers (40 miles)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 941 millibars (previous: 970 millibars)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE RANKING*: Category 3

LANDFALL AND LOSS PROBABILITIES

FORECAST LANDFALL LOCATION: Sorsogon Province, Luzon Island, Philippines
FORECAST LANDFALL TIMEFRAME: Monday afternoon, local time (PHT)
24-HOUR SIGNIFICANT LOCAL INSURED LOSS POTENTIAL: LOW-MEDIUM
DISCUSSION

Typhoon Melor, located approximately 570 kilometers (355 miles) east-southeast of Manila, Philippines, is currently tracking west at 20 kph (13 mph). High resolution, animated satellite imagery shows tightly curved spiral banding wrapping into a 22-kilometer (14-mile) wide eye. The initial position is based on the eye feature with high confidence. The initial intensity estimate is assessed at 205 kph (125 mph) based on Dvorak current intensity estimates from two reporting agencies. Although large scale environmental conditions remain favorable, Melor is beginning to feel the negative effects of land interaction.

Typhoon Melor will continue to track generally westward to west-northwestward under the steering influence of a ridge of high pressure over the next 36 hours. Based on current satellite analysis, good agreement among intensity guidance and increasing land interaction, the intensity is forecast to gradually decrease over the next 24 hours. The decay trend will then become more pronounced in response to increasing vertical wind shear and the intrusion of cold dry air associated with a strong continental cold surge in the South China Sea. From Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning, Melor will slow as the steering mechanism shifts from a deep layer mean flow to the low level surge flow. Forecast model tracks diverge after Tuesday evening however there is high confidence in the JTWC forecast track until this time.

Ahead of Melor’s landfall, officials in Northern Samar province have closed all schools while more than 1,500 passengers have been stranded in Cebu City as all ferry services have been cancelled. Public Storm Warning Signal (PSWS) number 2 was raised for Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon and Ticao Island, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar and Samar while PSWS number 1 was raised in 12 areas including Southern Quezon, Marinduque, Romblon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur and Masbate including Burias Island, Biliran, Leyte, Southern Leyte and Northern Cebu including Camotes Island, Dinagat province and Siargao Island.