Tropical storm Arthur, the first named storm of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, formed at the weekend off the coast of Florida as an early reminder of the months to come. Arthur remains a weak tropical storm and is expected to near the North Carolina coast but then curve out to sea.
Meanwhile, a much more dangerous tropical cyclone named Amphan is set to bring dangerous conditions to India and Bangladesh later this week, with the Category 4 equivalent strength storm set to bring hurricane force winds and a storm surge to a region populated by millions of people.
Tropical storm Arthur:
First, tropical storm Arthur which became an early pre-season tropical storm, as we suggested it would on Friday.
Tropical storm Arthur is moving north in-line with the eastern seaboard of the United States, passing the Carolina’s.
Tropical storm Arthur is forecast to come closest to the North Carolina coast around the Outer Banks, but then curve out into the Atlantic.
Tropical storm Arthur currently has sustained winds of around 45 mph, with higher gusts, with tropical storm force winds extending out some 90 miles from the centre of the storm.
The National Hurricane Center warns of tropical storm force winds for parts of the North Carolina coast, with how close Arthur eventually gets driving the strength of any wind gusts.
In addition, rainfall of 1 to 3 inches is widely expected across parts of North Carolina, with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches.
Even if tropical storm Arthur came closer to shore, or made a landfall, it will not strengthen significantly before its closest pass to the North Carolina region it now seems.
Arthur does not pose any real threat to insurance or reinsurance market interests at this time. But the storm is an early reminder of the season to come and will ensure reinsurance and insurance-linked securities (ILS) markets remain focused on the wind risk component of their renewals at this time of year.
Track the 2020 Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane season on our dedicated page and we’ll update you as new information emerges.
Tropical cyclone Amphan:
Meanwhile, across the world, tropical cyclone Amphan has rapidly intensified over the weekend and is now a dangerous and large roughly Category 4 equivalent storm.
Heading north through the Bay of Bengal, cyclone Amphan is on a course to make landfall around the India to Bangladesh border area, with the city of Kolkata set to feel the effects of the storm (how severely depending on the eventual landfall location.)
Cyclone Amphan has winds estimated at close to 150 mph already and should maintain that intensity for the next day, before weakening somewhat as it approaches landfall.
Warm waters and favourable conditions are expected to see cyclone Amphan coming ashore as a still intense storm with sustained winds of as much as 120 mph it seems, which could be a terrible blow for the region it is threatening.
Both India and Bangladesh coastal regions will be affected by very strong winds, as well as a perhaps significant storm surge and torrential rainfall.
As ever, in this region of the world, it is not the insurance or reinsurance market impact that concerns, it is the potential impact to lives and livelihoods, given this remains a relatively under-insured area.