tropical storm Helene 2024

Hurricane Helene is estimated to drive private market insurance and reinsurance industry losses in a range from $6 billion to as high as $11 billion by Verisk.

Moody’s RMS Event Response has said that it estimates private market insurance industry losses from hurricane Helene will be in a range from $8 billion to as much as $14 billion, one of the highest estimates seen so far.

CoreLogic has now updated its insurance market loss estimate for hurricane Helene to include losses to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), now putting the total in a range from $10.5 billion to as much as $17.5 billion.

While the majority of industry losses from hurricane Helene are expected to fall below primary insurers reinsurance attachment points, any that do flow to reinsurers should be able to be absorbed within earnings thanks to the structural changes of the reinsurance reset, S&P Global Ratings has said.

Public and private insurance market losses from all perils associated with hurricane Helene “will likely reach at least into the higher single-digit billions,” according to Aon’s Impact Forecasting division.

In conversations with sources in the reinsurance, catastrophe bond and insurance-linked securities (ILS) investments space, it seems some nerves are beginning to emerge over hurricane Helene’s potential to attach certain contracts, as data points begin to suggest a growing claims burden that could result in industry losses creeping higher.

The insurance industry loss from hurricane Helene is estimated to be close to $6.4 billion by Karen Clark & Company (KCC), with the company saying this includes wind, storm surge, and inland flooding impacts across nine states.

Investment manager Twelve Capital has issued an updated event report related to hurricane Helene’s impacts, saying that it still believes direct losses to per-occurrence catastrophe bonds are unlikely, but also notes that it is closely monitoring the NFIP FloodSmart Re cat bonds that cover named storm induced flooding.

According to analysis from ICEYE, the provider of satellite data and services to inform decision-making and analysis, hurricane Helene’s flooding saw over 100,000 buildings impacted, with more than 10,000 of those being inundated to flood depths of greater than 5 feet.

According to analysts at RBC Capital Markets, given the wide-reaching impacts from hurricane Helene running from its landfall in Florida right the way through to catastrophic flooding in North Carolina, the eventual insurance market loss could even run into the double-digit billions of dollars.