live cat

Insurance and reinsurance losses due to the estimated claims totals reported for tropical cyclone Debbie have risen much further across Queensland and New South Wales, Australia, hitting A$660 million from 41,105 claims as of this morning.

Claims estimates from tropical cyclone Debbie continue to rise today, with the latest estimate of claims now at AU$386 million, while insurer IAG has become the first to explain the impact to it and said that its 2017 catastrophe reinsurance and its aggregate reinsurance layer would both pay some of the claims.

Insurers have already reported AU$306 million (US$235m) of claims due to damage from tropical cyclone Debbie, with 28,000 individual cases reported across northern and south-easter Queensland and New South Wales.

Cyclone Debbie, which struck the northern Queensland coastline with wind gusts of up to 260kph, is thought to have caused an insurance industry loss somewhere around the level seen with 2011’s Yasi, which could be as much as AU$1.4 billion, but reinsurance arrangements will protect primary insurers.

Severe tropical cyclone Debbie struck northern Queensland in recent hours, with a landfall featuring 260kph wind gusts, storm, surge and torrential rain. A catastrophe has been declared for the region, but in the hours prior to landfall re/insurers were preparing for the impact and sources suggest the live-cat market woke up.

Hurricane Matthew’s close encounter (so far) with the Florida coastline, and as Georgia and South Carolina are also set to feel the hurricane’s force, could be the first real test for insurance, reinsurance and insurance-linked securities (ILS) players in recent years, according to rating agencies and equity analysts.

The risk of a major insurance and reinsurance industry loss seems to have decreased with the last few forecast updates for hurricane Matthew, as the path looks more likely to remain offshore of the Florida and southeast U.S. coastline.

According to rating agency Standard & Poor’s there are 15 catastrophe bonds it has given ratings to that are most exposed to hurricane Matthews impact on the Florida and U.S. eastern coastline. We also highlight a few which are not S&P rated and that we believe to be among the more exposed.

Hurricane Matthew could drag down returns for insurance and reinsurance firms, as well as ILS investors, but not offer the sector any solace from the soft market by increasing rates and pricing, according to analysts at Peel Hunt.

Hurricane Matthew has the potential to trigger outstanding catastrophe bonds and other ILS structures, based on latest forecasts, but significant uncertainty remains and exactly how close the storm gets to making landfall could wildly sway the eventual insurance and reinsurance industry loss.