catastrophe losses

HCI Group, the Florida-focused insurance holding company, said it expects to pay between $600 million and $750 million in claims for hurricanes Debby, Helene and Milton, but net retained losses from the three events could be as low as $185 million.

Reinsurance broker Gallagher Re has reported that global publicly and privately insured catastrophe losses reached US $108 billion after the third-quarter, which once hurricane Milton and the rest of Q4 are added means the annual total for 2024 could be well-above the decadal average.

Another estimate for insurance and reinsurance industry losses from hurricane Milton has been released, with Verisk saying it anticipates the private market insured loss will fall in a range from $30 billion to as much as $50 billion.

Hurricane Helene is estimated to drive private market insurance and reinsurance industry losses in a range from $6 billion to as high as $11 billion by Verisk.

Moody’s RMS Event Response has said that it estimates private market insurance industry losses from hurricane Helene will be in a range from $8 billion to as much as $14 billion, one of the highest estimates seen so far.

CoreLogic has now updated its insurance market loss estimate for hurricane Helene to include losses to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), now putting the total in a range from $10.5 billion to as much as $17.5 billion.

While the majority of industry losses from hurricane Helene are expected to fall below primary insurers reinsurance attachment points, any that do flow to reinsurers should be able to be absorbed within earnings thanks to the structural changes of the reinsurance reset, S&P Global Ratings has said.

Public and private insurance market losses from all perils associated with hurricane Helene “will likely reach at least into the higher single-digit billions,” according to Aon’s Impact Forecasting division.

In conversations with sources in the reinsurance, catastrophe bond and insurance-linked securities (ILS) investments space, it seems some nerves are beginning to emerge over hurricane Helene’s potential to attach certain contracts, as data points begin to suggest a growing claims burden that could result in industry losses creeping higher.

The insurance industry loss from hurricane Helene is estimated to be close to $6.4 billion by Karen Clark & Company (KCC), with the company saying this includes wind, storm surge, and inland flooding impacts across nine states.