2025 Atlantic hurricane season

The Demex Group, a risk analytics and intelligence company that facilitates climate and catastrophe peril parametric stop-loss reinsurance protection, has secured over $500 million of capacity for its newly developed working-layer aggregate severe convective storm (SCS) reinsurance solution.

While the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is projected to be more active than average, the fundamentals of the insurance-linked securities (ILS) market remain strong, according to François Divet, Head of ILS at AXA Investment Managers (AXA IM).

The Colorado State University (CSU) tropical meteorology team has lowered its forecast for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season slightly on all counts, citing strong observed and forecast Caribbean wind shear as an inhibitor to Atlantic hurricane activity, but continuing to predict an above-normal level of activity.

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) has updated its forecast for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season today, lowering the forecast for storm, hurricane and major hurricane numbers, while also dropping the forecast for US hurricane landfalls back to 2.

In a recent commentary, Bernhard Allgäuer, Senior Investment Strategist at VP Bank, outlined why insurance-linked securities (ILS) investors “have reason to be optimistic” heading into the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, citing elevated risk premia and a favourable technical setup that could support returns.

The Colorado State University (CSU) tropical meteorology team has maintained its forecast for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season to see above-average levels of activity, citing low odds of El Niño occurring during the peak season and keeping its forecast numbers relatively aligned with the recent 10-year average.

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season forecasts, alongside physical indicators for conditions and internal risk modelling, suggest a season of average-to-moderate activity, leading specialist insurance-linked securities (ILS) investment manager Twelve Securis to call it a “relatively balanced risk landscape.”

The UK Met Office has joined calls for above-average levels of 2025 Atlantic hurricane season activity, forecasting 9 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes as the most likely number to be experienced, citing signals for continued neutral El Niño conditions and vertical wind shear at near to or below-normal levels.

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) has released its pre-season forecast for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season today and has raised its figures for the number of storms and hurricanes it predicts, also raising the number of landfalling US hurricanes in its forecast to 3, while joining calls for an above-average level of activity.

With just over one week until the official start of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season on June 1st, US weather agency NOAA has issued its first forecast, giving a 60% chance of above normal activity levels, with between 6 and 10 hurricanes predicted over the coming months.