2023 hurricane season

Saying that warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic will counteract the increased vertical wind shear and stronger trade winds that occur under El Niño conditions, forecast group Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) has now raised its forecast for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season.

Colorado State University’s tropical meteorology team led by Phil Klotzbach is anticipating a more active 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, with its latest update increasing the number of hurricanes it predicts by 2, with 1 of those expected to become a major hurricane.

Two competing factors are set to drive conversations during the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, as well as risk. But there are other important areas insurance, reinsurance and ILS market interests should remain alert to, according to Jeff Waters of Moody’s RMS.

Colorado State University’s tropical meteorology team led by Phil Klotzbach has issued an update to its forecast for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, increasing the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes it expects by one.

Forecast group Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) is maintaining its forecast that the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season will see below-normal levels of activity, but it has added one named storm to the forecast in an update delivered today.

A 2023 Atlantic hurricane season forecast from the UK Met Office is calling for a high level of tropical storm activity this year, with an above normal number of hurricanes and major hurricanes expected to form, the first of the forecasters we track to suggest a more active season is coming.

The US weather service NOAA has released its forecast for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, predicting a 40% chance of a near normal season, in terms of tropical storm activity in the Atlantic basin.

If one were to look back at historical data on hurricane season years that feature a relatively strong El Niño and at the same time very warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SST’s), this might suggest a chance of fewer hurricane landfalls in the United States, and as a result fewer insurance and reinsurance market losses.

Colorado State University’s tropical meteorology team led by Phil Klotzbach has issued its first long-range forecast for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, predicting slightly below-average activity, but at the same time cautioning on uncertainty related to the strength of El Niño and warmer than normal Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SST’s).

Two additional hurricane forecasts have been released that both suggest that the United States eastern seaboard and Florida could face elevated threats this year, the main reason being the warmer than average SST’s seen in the Atlantic and also Gulf.