Super typhoon Halong could threaten southern Japan next week

Super typhoon Halong, the latest storm in the western Pacific typhoon season, has intensified to super typhoon status with sustained winds currently over 150mph and threatens to make a landfall on southern Japan late next week.

Update: See our latest article on typhoon Halong, published 16:00 GMT 7th August.

Update 07:30 GMT 4th August: The forecast track for typhoon Halong has been updated and it is now expected to hit southern Japan directly. The current forecast calls for some loss of intensity with Halong hitting Japan as a category 1 equivalent, but that is uncertain, as sea temperatures remain indicative of a stronger storm.

However strong the impact, southern Japan is set for a storm surge, coastal flooding, torrential rains which will cause flooding and landslides and some possible damage from winds.

An interesting point to note for forecasters and modellers is that typhoon Halong’s now accepted forecast track is very similar to the one the GFS model was predicting as much as three days ago.

Original article: Super typhoon Halong intensified rapidly over the weekend, reaching the equivalent of category 5 hurricane status making it a super typhoon. Typhoon Halong is now crossing the Philippine Sea where conditions remain conducive for the storm to maintain strength as it approaches Japans Ryukyu islands early next week.

Typhoon Halong tracking map showing the storms forecast path - Source: Weather Underground

Typhoon Halong is currently forecast to lose some intensity before it approaches the Japanese Ryukyu islands, however it will likely still be a category 2 or 3 storm which has the potential to cause significant impact and losses. Beyond that the forecast currently calls for the storm to swipe southern Japan before moving onto the Korean peninsula, but any deviation to the east will bring Japan more into Halong’s path and as a result threaten more insured losses there.

It’s too early to speculate about the extent of insurance and reinsurance losses that typhoon Halong could cause, but a storm which has reached super typhoon status is certainly worth tracking, particularly with exposure in Japan to typhoon risks a peril which features in the catastrophe bond and collateralized reinsurance market.

We will update you in a few days once the path of typhoon Halong and any threat to the Japanese mainland becomes clearer.