Strong consensus hurricane Erin will stay away from US coastline at this time: Twelve Securis

Hurricane Erin is now in the Atlantic, notably the first tropical storm to achieve hurricane status this season. Catastrophe bond and insurance-linked securities fund manager Twelve Securis has highlighted that there is a strong consensus among the models that Erin will stay far enough away from the US coastline to avoid any significant impacts.

The latest advisory from the US National Hurricane Center states that, “Steady to rapid strengthening is expected during the next two to three days, and Erin is forecast to become a major hurricane during the weekend.”

The NHC’s forecast advisory shows hurricane Erin has the potential to become a major Category 3 or low Category 4 hurricane within around 72 hours, with sustained winds currently expected to reach over 130 mph.

Update: As of Saturday morning, 10:00am UK time, the NHC said hurricane Erin has rapidly intensified and already has 120 mph sustained winds, while models are now suggesting it could reach Category 4 to 5 strength before curving north.

Update 2: By 13:00 UK time on Saturday, hurricane Erin’s sustained winds had intensified further to 145 mph, making it a still strengthening Category 4 storm.

Update 3: Erin further intensified to 155 mph sustained winds making it almost a Category 5 hurricane by 15:30 UK time on Saturday, according to the NHC.

Update 4: At 16:30 UK time Saturday Erin is now a Category 5 hurricane with sustained winds of near 160 mph according to the latest NHC update, citing air force hurricane hunter aircraft findings. Hurricane Erin has now almost doubled in maximum sustained wind speed terms in just 15 hours on Saturday so far. At this time, the models continue to call for the storm to track between the US and Bermuda, remaining away from land. But, it is worth noting that during the recent hours of rapid intensification Erin has been tracking south of the model tracks, while some meteorologists suggest a stronger warm could get further west before the recurve. Something to watch closely over the next day or two.

Update – 08:00am UK time Monday Aug 18th: Over the weekend hurricane Erin underwent an eyewall replacement cycle, resulting in a reduction in intensity. Currently, Erin remains a major hurricane with 130 mph sustained winds. The forecast cone continues to call for Erin to split the US and Bermuda, remaining away from land.

There have been some impacts to Caribbean islands from tropical storm force winds, waves and rainfall as Erin passed by.

Already, meteorologists eyes have moved to the next tropical wave coming off Africa, which is showing signs of development in the forecast models.

But the model consensus continues to be for hurricane Erin to track across the Atlantic to the north of the Caribbean and then curve northwards, heading up between Bermuda and the US coastline.

A few days ago, a number of the models were suggesting a very close passage to Bermuda for hurricane Erin, which put the insurance, reinsurance and ILS community on the island on watch.

But as this week has passed, forecast models have indicated a slightly more southerly passage and a more westerly shift in the curvature to the north, while the forecasted curve has also tightened somewhat, which hopefully means hurricane Erin remains well-offshore of both Bermuda and the United States (although some uncertainty remains at this stage).

The latest NHC forecast cone can be seen below:

Insurance-linked securities investment manager Twelve Securis has commented on the current outlook for hurricane Erin, as of Friday afternoon.

“Erin is forecast to track north of the northern Caribbean leeward Islands, before turning northwards late on Sunday / during Monday and then tracking between the east coast of the US and Bermuda mid-next week,” the ILS manager explained.

“Erin’s forecast has shifted slightly further westward, closer to the US coastline, over the past few days due to a slower than anticipated intensification and a more west/west-south position as Erin crossed the Atlantic.

“There does however remain a strong consensus from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), forecast models, and expert commentary, that Erin will stay far enough away from the US coastline to avoid any significant impacts,” Twelve Securis further stated.

At this stage, unless forecasts change materially, that is the expected outlook into early next week, with hurricane Erin expected to be turning north by Monday.

The forecasts will need watching though, as any further shift westwards in hurricane Erin’s direction of travel could bring the storm closer to the US, while any shifts south in the track could endanger parts of the Caribbean or Bahamas, or a tighter curve could again raise concerns for Bermuda.

That said, the model consensus is for both the US coast and Bermuda to be missed at this time (very few model runs indicate any concern at this time), which will hopefully remain the state of play early next week. Should the outlook for hurricane Erin’s forecast deteriorate in any way, we will update you next week.

Track the 2025 Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane season on our dedicated page and we’ll update you as new information emerges.