PERILS lifts July European convective storms insured market loss estimate to €2.8bn

Catastrophe data aggregator PERILS AG has updated its estimate of insurance industry losses for the severe convective storms (SCS) that swept across Germany, France, Switzerland, and Italy in Europe between July 13th and 19th, 2026, lifting the total to EUR 2.806 billion.

The storms are also known as “SCS Cerry”, following the naming of an associated low-pressure system by the Free University of Berlin.

PERILS published its initial industry loss estimate for the severe convective storms in late August, putting the total at EUR 2.186 billion.

As we said at the time, this outbreak of severe convective storms (SCS) across Europe became the largest loss from that peril in Europe in the PERILS AG list of loss events.

It also marked the largest insurance industry loss estimate for any European catastrophe event that PERILS has issued since the series of European windstorms in February 2022.

Now in its second industry loss estimate from the event, PERILS has lifted the total by roughly 28% to EUR 2.806 billion.

PERILS explained that its loss estimate is based on data gathered from impacted insurers, including losses from property and motor lines of business.

PERILS will also publish a third estimate of the market loss from the mid-July severe convective storms on January 19th, 2027, six months after the event end date.

Earlier this week, PERILS also published its initial loss estimate for the severe convective storm and hail outbreak that struck parts of western Europe between August 26th and 28th 2026, placing the total at EUR 3,296 million.

This event, combined with the July outbreak, showcases how costly European SCS activity has been in recent months.

At the same time, CatIQ, Canada’s insured loss and exposure indices provider and subsidiary of PERILS, has published its second industry loss estimate for the severe convective storms that struck southern Ontario, including Toronto, on September 2nd and 3rd, 2026, lifting the total to CAD $671 million.

CatIQ published its initial loss estimate from the event earlier this month, putting the total at $563 million.

With claims having continued to be filed, the total has risen steadily now, increasing by roughly 19% to $671 million for the second industry loss estimate. CatIQ’s loss number covers both property and motor lines of business.

The company also confirmed that it will publish its third loss estimate of the market loss from the southern Ontario SCS on December 3rd, 2026, three months after the event end date.

Luzi Hitz, Product Manager at PERILS, commented: “These two loss updates show clearly that severe convective storms are a major risk for the insurance markets in Europe and Canada. In fact, in recent years most mid-latitude countries globally have experienced more severe losses from convective storms than previously.

“There are multiple factors driving this. Firstly, this reflects the increase in vulnerable assets such as solar panels, roof windows, light-weight blinds and soft external wall insulation. Also, as economies grow there are simply more assets at risk of damage. Finally, the warming climate is driving an increase in the formation of more violent and damaging SCS events.”

Caroline Floyd, Director of CatIQ, said: “Severe convective storms have again been at the forefront of what has been a very active year for Canadian catastrophes. More than half of the year’s events involved SCS, including multiple major catastrophes affecting large population centres. The growing global impacts of this peril reaffirm the importance of having accurate data detailing the effects of these kinds of events.”