PERILS finalises industry loss estimate for Southern Germany floods at €1.56bn

Catastrophe data aggregator PERILS has issued its fourth and final industry loss estimate for the floods that impacted southern Germany between May 31 and June 6, 2024, putting the insured market loss at €1.564 billion.

This final figure compares to earlier estimates of €1.568 billion, which was issued six weeks after the event, €1.590 billion (three months after), and €1.582 billion (six months after), showing only minor adjustments over time.

Readers will recall that Verisk’s Extreme Event Solutions had previously estimated that the flooding in southern Germany would drive insurance industry losses in a range from US $2.6 billion to $3.9 billion.

While, Moody’s (RMS) had put an upper-limit to its insurance market loss estimate at US $3.2 billion.

According to PERILS, 63% of the losses from the event stemmed from personal lines property, while 37% were from commercial lines.

The vast majority of the insured losses occurred in the states of Baden-Württemberg and Bavaria, which together accounted for more than 96% of the total industry loss.

The floods were triggered by sustained heavy rainfall brought by a moisture-laden low-pressure system from the Mediterranean. The region between Stuttgart and Munich saw two-day rainfall totals exceeding the 1-in-100-year return period, falling on already saturated ground after the third-wettest May in Germany since records began in 1881.

The resulting floods led to thousands of evacuations, extensive property damage, and the tragic loss of six lives.

PERILS noted that from an insurance perspective, the event was well managed by the German insurance industry, which likely benefited from insights from major recent flood events such as the Ahrtal (Bernd) Floods of July 2021.

“The event nevertheless triggered more discussions on mandatory flood insurance for houseowners with the recently elected federal government appearing committed to introducing a scheme for comprehensive atmospherical perils insurance,” PERILS said.

Luzi Hitz, Product Manager at PERILS, commented: “With largescale events in 2002, 2013, 2021, and 2024, Germany has experienced four catastrophic floods in the last 24 years.

“Moreover, as the warming climate increases the capacity of the atmosphere to carry water, extreme rainfall episodes such as during the event in southern Germany last year could become more frequent. It is therefore not surprising that mandatory flood insurance, which is in place in France or Switzerland, is being seriously considered in Germany,” Hitz added.