NOAA forecasts 55% chance of below-normal Atlantic hurricane season, as El Nino nears

US weather agency NOAA anticipates an 82% chance of El Niño between May to July and with the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation seen to moderate tropical activity in the Atlantic, the first forecast from NOAA for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is for a 55% chance of below-normal activity levels.

There are less than two weeks until the accepted start of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season and forecasters are all highlighting how the expected onset of El Niño conditions will influence the coming months in the tropics.

Some forecasters have lowered the number of storms they anticipate in April updates, while others have come out with similar numbers forecasting an Atlantic hurricane season which is slightly below the norm in terms of activity levels.

It’s worth providing our usual words of caution, that forecasts are typically considered directionally helpful at best until the season is underway and nearing its peak months.

It only takes one major storm to make landfall in a region with high economic and insured values for there to be significant impacts to the insurance, reinsurance, catastrophe bond and insurance-linked securities (ILS) markets. A forecast for lower storm numbers does not mean a greatly reduced chance of damaging hurricane events.

Back to the new NOAA hurricane forecast for the 2026 season, announced within the last hour.

For the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, beginning June 1st, NOAA’s National Weather Service forecasts 8 to 14 named tropical storms, with 3 to 6 hurricanes, and between 1 and 3 intense hurricanes of Category 3 strength or greater.

NOAA said it sees a a 35% chance of a near-normal season, a 10% chance of an above-normal season, and a 55% chance of a below-normal season.

The agency also said it has a 70% confidence in these ranges of storm numbers and probabilities.

NOAA had previously said that it remains to be seen how strong this impending El Niño becomes, but it also cautioned that just because it can supress factors that cause tropical storms in the Atlantic, it does not mean there is no risk.

In fact, while hurricane conditions are seen as less-conducive during an El Niño and wind shear can impeded any tropical storms that do form, there are factors related to an El Niño that can elevate risk.

One of these is the fact that a typical shift in the jet stream associated with an El Niño event can steer storms towards the mid-Atlantic United States coast, which NOAA cautions can result in more storm surge events.

NOAA said today, “The Atlantic season is expected to be below-normal due to competing factors. El Niño is expected to develop and intensify during the hurricane season, while ocean temperatures in the Atlantic are expected to be slightly warmer than normal and trade winds are likely weaker than average. El Niño conditions tend to support less tropical storms and hurricanes, while warmer ocean temperatures and low winds support a more active year.”

“Although El Niño’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold,” further explained NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham. “That is why it’s essential to review your hurricane preparedness plan now. It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season.”

When including all of the other hurricane season forecasts we’ve seen so far, the average across them currently calls for 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes during the 2026 season in the Atlantic basin, which is below the longer-term and recent historical seasonal averages.

We will be tracking the tropics as the season begins and you can follow along using our typical 2026 Atlantic hurricane season page, which will be updated as forecast updates are released and when any tropical storm activity occurs.

Read some articles on the value of seasonal hurricane forecasts:

– Cat bond portfolio construction more important than seasonal hurricane forecasts: Man Group.

– ILS investment outcomes about more than just hurricane season forecasts: Gibson, Schroders Capital.

– Adjusting ILS exposure for July hurricane forecast can deliver excess returns: Euler, TSR study.