Verisk has estimated that insurance industry losses from recent hurricane Idalia will total between $2.5 billion and $4 billion.
The low-end of Verisk’s initial estimate is already higher than the around $2.2 billion estimate from Karen Clark & Company last week.
Verisk noted that its industry loss estimate includes estimated wind damage and insured estimates of storm surge across Idalia’s track and that it anticipates that the majority of the losses will be from damage due to wind.
The industry loss estimate from Verisk includes onshore residential, commercial and industrial property losses, as well as automobile losses, across building, contents and time element coverage.
It also factors in the impact of demand surge to its loss estimate for hurricane Idalia.
Verisk also highlighted that a significant portion of the building inventory along Hurricane Idalia’s track predate the International Codes, so were built prior to the year 2000.
Because of this and the fact the Big Bend region of Florida where Idalia made landfall, has the lowest design winds statewide, the damage is expected to be severe in the vicinity of landfall, Verisk explained.
Now, the post-landfall loss estimates from risk modelling firms range from $2.2 billion to $4 billion, a still relatively narrow range and well-below the levels required to cause significant reinsurance or insurance-linked securities (ILS) impact.
It still fits well into the original prediction that hurricane Idalia’s eventual insurance market loss would fall towards the lower-end of a $3 billion to $9 billion range.