Convective storm losses on-track for $20bn plus again in 2022: Aon

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Losses from the severe convective storm peril are already on-track to surpass $20 billion again in 2022, according to Aon’s Impact Forecasting.

This peril category, which includes tornadoes, hail, winds and rainfall from convective weather and severe thunderstorm outbreaks, has become one of the most significant contributors to annual US industry losses for insurance and reinsurance interests.

Impact Forecasting said that if the $20 billion threshold is surpassed again, it will be the 15th consecutive calendar year that severe convective storm losses have risen that high.

Aon’s team commented on loss activity from the last week, which it expects will minimally produce another insured loss well into the hundreds of millions of USD.

It’s been a “very active three months for the peril” the Impact Forecasting team reported, with hundreds of millions of dollars of losses from severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, hail and winds, as well as Derecho type events, almost every week.

Tornado reports are continuing to run to about the trend, but hail reports are further below the average for this time of the year.

Aon provides a chart to show the trend in severe convective storm economic losses:

severe-convective-storm-losses-h1-2022

Convective storm losses tend to fluctuate, but the upwards trend is clearly visible here.

With exposures growing rapidly in some regions of the United States that are particularly exposed, this trend for convective storm losses to rise is likely to continue. Whether there is a climate influence here is very hard for experts to identify.

Insurance and reinsurance market losses from severe weather and convective storms in the United States were around the $20 billion mark in 2021.

Given where the economic loss tally stands currently, it seems highly possible the insurance and reinsurance impacts from this peril could near $20 billion again this year.

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