CatIQ raises Ontario & Quebec ice storm loss estimate 18% to C$490m

CatIQ, Canada’s insured loss and exposure index provider, has raised its insurance industry loss estimate from the ice storm that struck Ontario and Quebec between March 28 and 31 to CAD $490 million, an 18% increase from its third loss estimate of CAD $416 million that was issued in July.

This marks CatIQ’s fourth loss estimate from the event.

We covered CatIQ’s first loss estimate from the ice storm, which was issued on April 30, where losses had surpassed CAD $340 million.

A second estimate was then released by CatIQ in May, at more than CAD $402 million, before rising to CAD $416 million in July.

CatIQ’s loss estimate covers property (both commercial and residential) and vehicle (motor) claims including additional loss adjustment expenses.

The event involved a prolonged period of wintry precipitation across southern Ontario and Quebec, with areas in the Kawarthas reportedly experiencing up to 35 hours of freezing rain and ice accretion of up to 25 mm.

“The accumulated ice put significant strain on power lines, trees, and other surfaces, causing extensive damage and leaving hundreds of thousands of customers without power. Power disruptions persisted for weeks in the hardest-hit areas,” CatIQ explained.

CatIQ confirmed that a fifth market loss update from the ice storm will be published on March 31, 2026, one year after the event end date.

Caroline Floyd, Director of CatIQ, commented: “Continued creep in the personal line losses highlights the extent of damage across south-central Ontario and southern Quebec, particularly for those homes and vacation properties in more remote areas. Notably, growth in estimated incurred costs continues to outstrip growth in the number of claims, suggesting claims are proving more expensive than initially anticipated in some cases.

“Certainly, the extent of the increase at this 6-month mark is somewhat out of the norm, but it seems more reasonable when one considers that many of the affected properties may be seasonal access, leaving property owners to only discover the extent of damage during the summer months.”

Floyd added: “It’s possible additional challenges of access – be it delays caused by damage to infrastructure, or just the need to move resources over larger distances – could be exacerbating cost increases. With approximately two-thirds of personal claims now estimated to be closed, it will be interesting to see if we find additional growth between now and the one-year estimate.”