AIR sees Zeta onshore U.S. loss below $3.5bn, CoreLogic below $4bn

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Catastrophe risk modeller AIR Worldwide estimates that hurricane Zeta’s onshore wind and storm surge insured losses in the United States will be less than $3.5 billion, with the bottom-end of its range far lower at $1.5 billion.

hurricane-zeta-windsMeanwhile, CoreLogic has also released an estimate, saying that it expects hurricane Zeta’s insurance market losses from wind and surge will be between $2.5 billion and $4 billion, with up to $3.5 billion from wind damage in Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama alone.

It opens up a wide range of estimates, when all of this information is added to the earlier estimate from Karen Clark & Company (KCC) who said that it believes hurricane Zeta will cost the insurance and reinsurance market close to $4.4 billion, $4.3 billion of which is estimated to be the onshore wind and surge insured loss in the U.S.

The range now sits at $1.5 billion to as much as $4.3 billion, just for storm surge and wind related insurance and reinsurance market losses in the U.S., which for a lower-impact hurricane is quite wide.

Which once again reflects the gulf that often emerges between risk modeller views, highlighting the need for underwriters to have their own views to complement the inputs from the risk models, especially so soon after a disaster has struck.

AIR said that its estimate, for onshore insured wind and surge losses in a range from $1.5 billion to $3.5 billion, includes losses to onshore residential, commercial, and industrial properties and automobiles for their building, contents, and time element coverage.

CoreLogic meanwhile sees insured wind losses for residential and commercial properties in Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama as between $2.2 billion and $3.5 billion, while insured storm surge losses are estimated to be an additional $0.3 billion to $0.5 billion.

CoreLogic’s estimate is based on losses to residential homes and commercial properties, including contents and business interruption.

So it seems almost certain hurricane Zeta’s insurance and reinsurance market losses will settle below $5 billion, if you include Mexico and offshore exposures as well.

Which makes the storm another attritional loss for the sector, raising the total insurance and reinsurance market loss from the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season closer towards the $30 billion mark.

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