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It is now official, investors in the $100m tranche of MultiCat Mexico Ltd. (Series 2012-1) Class C catastrophe bond notes are facing a 50% loss of principal after calculation agent AIR Worldwide delivered its final report on the matter.

The $100m of still outstanding catastrophe bond notes from the loss-facing MultiCat Mexico Ltd. (Series 2012-1) Class C cat bond deal have been priced by brokers back at around the 50 cents on the dollar mark, reflecting the increasing likelihood that the tranche only faces a 50% default.

The $100m tranche of notes from the MultiCat Mexico Ltd. (Series 2012-1) Class C catastrophe bond, which are exposed to a loss due to recent hurricane Patricia’s impact on Mexico, have now been placed on CreditWatch with negative implications by S&P.

The $100m tranche of MultiCat Mexico Ltd. (Series 2012-1) Class C catastrophe bond notes look almost certain to face a loss from the impact of hurricane Patricia yesterday, but the question now, due to the parametric triggers conditions, is how much.

Rating agency Standard & Poor’s has now affirmed its rating on the MultiCat Mexico Ltd. (Series 2012-1) Class C catastrophe bond notes and removed them from CreditWatch as hurricane Odile was not a triggering event.

Investors in the MultiCat Mexico Ltd. (Series 2012-1) Class C catastrophe bond notes will not face any loss due to September’s hurricane Odile as calculation made using the latest data from the NHC deems the parametric trigger had not been triggered.

The fate of the MultiCat Mexico Ltd. (Series 2012-1) catastrophe bond, after hurricane Odile threatened to trigger its Class C notes, looks more secure as the official report data from the National Hurricane Center suggests a loss may not be guaranteed.

It’s no surprise to see that rating agency Standard & Poor’s has now placed the $100m MultiCat Mexico Ltd. (Series 2012-1) Class C catastrophe bond notes on CreditWatch with negative implications as they sit at risk of loss due to hurricane Odile.

The fate of the MultiCat Mexico Ltd. (Series 2012-1) catastrophe bond is not as clear-cut as it seems. We understand that investors must wait for confirmed data on hurricane Odile to be released by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) which can take some weeks.

Hurricane Odile made landfall in southern Baja California Sur, near Cabo San Lucas as a major storm with winds of 125mph and more importantly for catastrophe bond investors a minimum central pressure of 930mb, according to the NOAA.