The United States, in particular the Gulf Coast, is under a double hurricane threat currently, with storms Laura and Marco expected to be named in the coming hours and the forecast showing a potential double-hit to the Gulf Coast region around Texas to Louisiana.
The tropics look set to unleash two U.S. hurricane landfall threats on the insurance, reinsurance and insurance-linked securities (ILS) market later today.
Update, Monday 24th Aug, 08:00 BST: We’ve updated our thoughts on both these storms in this new article.
Tropical depressions thirteen and fourteen have become more organised and now the latest NHC forecast shows the pair becoming tropical storms and then intensifying into hurricane Laura and hurricane Marco by early next week, with threats to a wide swathe of the hurricane exposed coastline, including a threat to Florida.
At this stage neither has been named a tropical storm, but as you can see from the above this is expected in the coming day.
Beyond that, depression thirteen (on the left) is forecast to skirt the Caribbean, impact the Bahamas, perhaps make a landfall in southern Florida, before emerging back in the Gulf of Mexico and heading for a landfall as a hurricane in the Panhandle region.
Depression fourteen is forecast to cross the Mexican peninsula and enter the Gulf Of Mexico with nothing between it and a landfall as a hurricane around Texas or Louisiana.
The waters of the Gulf of Mexico remain conducive to intensification and while meteorologists note the position of a wave giving off wind shear, some are suggesting that once over the Gulf these two hurricanes could intensify, with the chances of high category 1, or even stronger, double hurricane landfalls on the Gulf Coast early next week.
The situation, with two potential landfall threatening storms in the water is certain to put the insurance, reinsurance and insurance-linked securities (ILS) community on alert over the weekend.
Whether a double hurricane landfall threat could stimulate some live cat trading remains to be seen, but that is possible if the storms can intensify.
Modelled intensity guidance for tropical depression thirteen (from TropicalTidbits.com):
Modelled intensity guidance for tropical depression fourteen (from TropicalTidbits.com):
We’ll keep you updated and you can track the tropics over at our dedicated 2020 Atlantic hurricane season page.