Dorian weakens as it lashes NC, continues north with hurricane winds

Hurricane Dorian has begun to weaken somewhat as it lashes the North Carolina coast, with flooding from storm surge and rainfall reported in some areas, as well as wind damage. The storm is now expected to sustain its hurricane force winds right up into eastern Canada and the surrounding region.

Last update to this article at 06:00 UTC, Sep 6th:Hurricane Dorian has been a particularly long-lived storm, having begun way down in the Caribbean, but now being expected to bring hurricane force wind gusts as far north as eastern Canada, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.

Hurricane Dorian has been a named storm for almost 13 days now and while it has weakened a little due to its brush close to the Carolinas coast, it still sustains 90 mph winds, remaining a category 1 hurricane capable of damage and wide impacts due to its large size.

Dorian is expected to slowly weaken now, but the NHC continues to warn of “life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds” while meteorologists expect inches of rainfall and flooding for some coastal areas.

Hurricane Dorian has caused coastal flooding in South and North Carolina, with some tornadoes reported as well and wind damage in exposed areas from hurricane force gusts that continue. Rainfall totals are now reaching above 6 inches and further flooding is possible as Dorian continues to hug the coast today.

RMS said that Cat 2 hurricanes that made landfall in Georgia and the Carolinas caused between $2 billion and $7.6 billion in insurance and reinsurance market losses.

Dorian does not seem to have been that severe in its impacts, hence industry loss expectations are likely to the bottom end of that scale for the Carolinas.

Dorian will move north along the coast, then move further out over the Atlantic and undergo an extratropical transition, but it is expected to sustain hurricane force wind gusts and bring damaging conditions to areas of eastern Canada, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland it passes over.

Any wobble onshore, or a full landfall and time onshore, while it passes North Carolina today could raise the potential insurance, reinsurance and insurance-linked securities (ILS) market impact significantly.

So, risks still exist for the insurance, reinsurance, insurance-linked securities (ILS) and catastrophe bond markets, and the ILS market cannot discount suffering some losses from Dorian, as we explained in more detail yesterday.

However, as Dorian passes north this risk is reducing and today may be the last that the sector has a particular focus on Dorian’s real-time impacts, thoughts instead turning to the damage wrought in its path.

We feel it’s important to remember the sheer devastation that has already occurred widely in the Bahamas as well.

The Bahamas received a direct hit from hurricane Dorian and islands have been devastated, with massive property damage reported and a significant local insurance market loss likely, that global reinsurance capital is likely to assist with.

Insurance and reinsurance market losses of up to $1.3 billion have been experienced with previous strong hurricanes that hit Abaco and Grand Bahama islands, it seems likely hurricane Dorian could eclipse that total given the devastation experienced in the last two days.

A gradual weakening is now forecast, but still, the coming days or so is vital, as hurricane Dorian travels along the U.S. coastline and market participants will need to keep a close watch on the storm as it progresses north.

Below is the latest intensity model output from TropicalTidbits.com

Below are the latest GFS ensemble hurricane forecast model tracks for Dorian, from TropicalTidbits.com.

NOAA’s latest full update on hurricane Dorian is below:

At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 34.2 North, longitude 76.8 West. Dorian is moving toward the northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will move
near or over the coast of North Carolina during the next several hours. The center should move to the southeast of extreme southeastern New England tonight and Saturday morning, and then across Nova Scotia late Saturday or Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected during the next few days. However, Dorian should remain a powerful hurricane as the center moves near or along the coast of North Carolina. Dorian is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds by Saturday night as it approaches Nova Scotia.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km). A Weatherflow station in Pamlico Sound, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 51 mph (82 km/h) and a wind gust to 70 mph (113 km/h). The Johnny Mercer Pier NOAA-NOS station located at Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina, recently measured a sustained wind of 42 mph (66 km/h) and a gust of 58 mph (93 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters and surface observations is 958 mb (28.29 inches). A report of 959.2 mb (28.32 inches) was recently measured at Wrightsville Beach Offshore buoy.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
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WIND: Hurricane conditions are spreading along portions of the North Carolina coast. Tropical storm conditions are still affecting the northern portion of the South Carolina coast.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in the Mid-Atlantic states later today and over portions of extreme southeastern Massachusetts tonight or early Saturday.

STORM SURGE:

Surf City to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle
Sounds and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers…4 to 7 ft
Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads…2 to 4 ft
Wrightsville Beach to Surf City NC…2 to 4 ft

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Friday Night:

South Carolina…Additional amounts up to a half inch, isolated storm totals of 12 inches.

Eastern North Carolina…Additional 3 to 8 inches, isolated storm totals of 15 inches.

Far southeast Virginia…3 to 8 inches.

Extreme Southeastern New England…2 to 4 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this morning across eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia.

We will update you on hurricane Dorian as it proceeds and the threat it could pose to global insurance, reinsurance and ILS market interests.

You can always visit our 2019 Atlantic hurricane season page for the latest and we will update you as new information is reported to us.

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