Guy Carpenter U.S. Property Catastrophe Rate-On-Line Index

Latest reinsurance renewal commentary from Guy Carpenter

The Guy Carpenter U.S. Property Catastrophe Rate on Line Index increased by 35 percent through the 2023 renewals, with the broker saying it reflected the largest increase in risk-adjusted US catastrophe reinsurance pricing 17 years.

The momentum slowed considerably at the January 2024 renewals, when US property catastrophe reinsurance rates increased by 5.3%, rising further but at a slower pace, to reach another all-time-high for this Index.

Guy Carpenter said that the renewals at January 1st 2024 were far more stable and while the US property cat reinsurance business is not the main focus of those renewals, further increases suggest rate momentum may continue through to the the mid-year renewal season, with that juncture having a more significant contribution to this Index.

The January 1 2024 renewals saw wide differentiation in property catastrophe reinsurance rates across the market though, with Guy Carpenter noting that some property cat renewals were up by as much as 30%, but that overall the market was more stable and the availability of retrocession capital helped in this respect.

The most recent low for this U.S. Property Catastrophe Rate on Line Index was in 2017, at the end of the soft market and since when rates have risen consistently each year.

Since 2017, the cumulative rise of this Index has now reached roughly 116%, suggesting a more-than doubling of property catastrophe reinsurance rates-on-line for US buyers since that time.

* Numbers based on latest renewal data.

• View the Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe Rate-On-Line Index.
• View the Guy Carpenter Regional Property Catastrophe Rate-On-Line Index.

The Guy Carpenter ROL index is a measure of the change in dollars paid for coverage year on year on a consistent program base.  The index reflects the pricing impact of a growing (or shrinking) exposure base, evolving methods of measuring risk and changes in buying habits, as well as changes in market conditions.  Unlike risk-adjusted measurements, the index is not dependent on the model or method used to measure the amount of perceived risk in a program, which can vary widely.