tropical storm Michael 2018

Hurricane Michael will result in an insurance and reinsurance market loss of close to $8 billion from wind and storm surge, excluding NFIP losses, according to catastrophe risk modelling specialists Karen Clark & Co.

The reinsurance market and as a result some collateralized providers of reinsurance capital may take a greater share of losses from hurricane Michael’s Florida and beyond impacts than they did for last month’s hurricane Florence, according to analysts.

Insurance-linked securities (ILS) funds that are either mutual funds or listed vehicles saw their prices decline less than the share prices of global insurance and reinsurance funds as hurricane Michael made its devastating Category 4 hit on Florida.

The eventual insurance, reinsurance and perhaps ILS fund industry losses from hurricane Michael’s strong Category 4 landfall on the Florida Gulf Coast yesterday are unlikely to be sufficient to move the market, according to brokers, rating agencies and analysts.

The wind and storm surge related insurance industry loss from hurricane Michael is estimated to be between $2 billion and $4.5 billion by Corelogic, based on a pre-landfall data assessment of the storms impacts to insured assets.

Hurricane Michael has strengthened once again, becoming a major Category 4 storm with 155 mph sustained winds and higher gusts and is forecast to make landfall in Florida in the coming hours as an extremely dangerous storm, with experts warning of a life threatening situation from winds and storm surge.

The precise location where hurricane Michael makes its expected Category 4 landfall today will have a significant bearing on the potential for ILS impacts, according to Twelve Capital, who also estimated on a stochastic basis that the eventual industry loss could be $5 billion to as much as $15 billion.

A more intense now Category 4 hurricane Michael with 145 mph sustained winds and higher gusts means a potential doubling in the economic impacts caused by the storms surge and wind damage to around $16 billion, according to new simulated model runs.

Catastrophe risk modelling firm RMS has highlighted some key differences between hurricane Michael, which is heading for the Florida coast and expected to be a major category storm at landfall, with recent hurricane Florence.

The main Floridian primary insurers as well as some of the largest national U.S. insurance firms are among the most exposed to the impacts of hurricane Michael, according to A.M. Best data.