The highly respected tropical cyclone forecast team from Colorado State University, Klotzbach & Gray, has forecast a below-average number of tropical cyclones and hurricanes for the 2014 Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane season.
Klotzbach & Gray are the latest to publish a forecast for storm formation probabilities for the 2014 hurricane season. They are also the latest to point towards a below-average hurricane season with a developing El Niño and cooler than expected Atlantic cited as key reasons for the forecast.
Earlier this week we covered the latest Tropical Storm Risk forecast, which called for a reduced forecast of 12 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 2 major (Category 3+) hurricanes.
Klotzbach & Gray have gone even lower, with a forecast for 9 named tropical storms, 3 hurricanes and 1 major hurricane to form during the 2014 season. The 1981 to 2010 median is 12 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes, making this forecast below average.
Klotzbach & Gray explained; “We anticipate that the 2014 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have below-average activity compared with the 1981-2010 climatology. It appears quite likely that an El Niño of at least moderate strength will develop this summer and fall. In addition, the tropical Atlantic has anomalously cooled over the past few months. We anticipate a below-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean.”
The forecasters give a 35% chance for a major hurricane of category 3 or greater hitting the U.S. coastline, below the long-term average probability of 52%. For Florida only the probability of a major hurricane making landfall is forecast at 20%, again below the long-term average of 31%. The Gulf Coast probability of a major hurricane landfall is 19%, below the long-term 30% average.
The probability of a major hurricane tracking into the Caribbean is also below average, say Klotzbach & Gray, putting the probability of this occurring at 28%, again below the long-term average of 42%.
While this is a forecast for a much quieter season in terms of storm formation it only takes a single major hurricane to make landfall, or a series of smaller hurricanes, for there to be significant damage, disruption, potential loss of life and of course insurance industry losses.
You can track the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season, compare forecasts and monitor the progress of storms here on Artemis. Visit and bookmark our 2014 Atlantic hurricane season page.
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