What volume of catastrophe bonds do you think will be issued in 2012?

by Artemis on January 3, 2012

Each January we ask our readers to tell us what volume of catastrophe bonds (and similar ILS transactions) they think will be issued during the coming year. For the second year running our readers have correctly guessed that there would be between $4 billion and $6 billion of cat bonds issued. During 2011 there were approximately $4.9 billion of cat bonds or major ILS transactions issued (including some private deals which we covered).

So, after the record issuance seen in the fourth quarter of 2011 do you think that will carry over and continue into 2012? Will the increased interest in ILS as an investment opportunity translate into increased issuance from both old and new sponsors? Will rising reinsurance rates mean cat bonds and ILS become a more attractive option equalling higher issuance for 2012? Tell us what you think in the poll below. The poll will also remain accessible in the right hand sidebar of the Artemis news blog throughout the year so you can see how the vote progresses.

What volume of catastrophe bonds & ILS do you think will be issued in 2012?

  • $6B to $8B (30%, 86 Votes)
  • $4B to $6B (26%, 74 Votes)
  • $10B+ (21%, 60 Votes)
  • $8B to $10B (13%, 37 Votes)
  • $2B to $4B (8%, 22 Votes)
  • $0 to $2B (2%, 4 Votes)

Total Voters: 283

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Here are the results of our 2011 poll which shows our readers correctly predicting that there were between $4 to $6 billion of cat bonds issued. The voting was much closer for 2011 and clearly shows that many were expecting a greater volume of issuance, this was particularly evident at the start of the year. All of the cat bonds and ILS deals that we covered on Artemis during 2011 are listed here.

What volume of catastrophe bonds do you think will be issued in 2011?

  • $4B to $6B (28%, 67 Votes)
  • $6B to $8B (23%, 55 Votes)
  • $10B+ (21%, 49 Votes)
  • $2B to $4B (12%, 29 Votes)
  • $8B to $10B (11%, 26 Votes)
  • $0 to $2B (5%, 11 Votes)

Total Voters: 237

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And here are the results of the same poll for 2010 when again our readers correctly predicted the volume of cat bonds issued during 2010. The final total for 2010 was approximately $5.2 billion, all of these deals are listed here.

What volume of catastrophe bonds do you think will be issued in 2010?

  • $4B to $6B (45%, 81 Votes)
  • $6B to $8B (18%, 32 Votes)
  • $10B+ (13%, 24 Votes)
  • $2B to $4B (13%, 23 Votes)
  • $8B to $10B (8%, 15 Votes)
  • $0 to $2B (3%, 6 Votes)

Total Voters: 181

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As ever, you can view details on every cat bond and ILS transaction that we have covered on Artemis (240 deals going back to 1996 at the latest count) in our Deal Directory.

Note: The total volume issued always varies between sources and publications as some include life ILS deals (as we do) and others include or exclude private cat bonds (we include where we have the information).

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